铅：花旗大量提铅、河北环保督察点评

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LME lead inventory has decreased from a high level, but the overall inventory is still high. With the news of Citigroup's plan to extract a large amount of lead from Singapore warehouses, the market sentiment has shifted from the weak reality of LME lead oversupply to the strong expectation of inventory reduction. The lead ingot spot import window has opened, and overseas lead ingots can be smoothly transferred to China, alleviating the overseas inventory accumulation pressure, leading to a rebound in LME lead [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead has been good. The production reduction of primary and secondary lead smelters has led to a shortage of market supply, and the low lead price has stimulated downstream purchasing. The battery enterprises' inventory has decreased, and their production has recovered after the holiday, with good orders and a slight increase in battery prices. The domestic lead ingot inventory accumulation is less than expected. The cost - side support of lead has strengthened, and the actual resumption of secondary lead production is slower than expected, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead. The news of environmental inspections in Hebei has further stimulated the entry of long - position funds, breaking the previous stalemate and causing Shanghai lead to break through the previous consolidation range [3]. - In the future, the shift of capital sentiment should be closely monitored. Against the backdrop of the US disrupting the global supply chain and the government shutdown, funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's extraction of lead from Singapore warehouses has opened up upward space for LME lead. The external market may drive the domestic market to rise. Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to factors such as the competitiveness of lithium batteries, pre - consumption caused by "trade - in" in China, and the impact of tariffs on battery exports, as well as the expected increase in secondary lead production after the lead price rises, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents News - Citigroup plans to extract a large amount of lead from LME - approved Singapore warehouses as it seeks other rent - sharing transactions [2]. - Hebei will control incoming vehicles, and vehicles of China V emission standard and below are not allowed to enter factories. The transportation of waste materials and lead ingots in local secondary lead enterprises and lead - acid battery enterprises is affected, and the transportation cycle is extended [2]. Market Situation Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the LME lead inventory has decreased to 239,750 tons, with a high proportion of cancelled warrants (68.1%). The opening of the lead ingot import window has alleviated the overseas inventory pressure [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead is good. The reduction in primary and secondary lead production has led to a shortage of supply, and the low lead price has stimulated purchasing. Battery enterprises' production has recovered, and the inventory accumulation of lead ingots is less than expected [3]. - In the primary lead sector, some enterprises have复产 and减产, and the pre - winter storage of some smelters has intensified the shortage of lead concentrates, leading to a decrease in lead concentrate TC and stronger cost - side support [3]. - In the secondary lead sector, the actual resumption of production is slower than expected, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead fluctuates in the range of 50 - 75 yuan/ton, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead [3]. Future Price Forecast - The shift of capital sentiment is crucial. Funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's lead extraction has opened up upward space for LME lead, and the external market may drive the domestic market to rise [4]. - Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to various factors, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4].