铜领涨有色：有色日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: Today, Shanghai copper showed a significant increase in positions and prices, especially in the afternoon, with a gain of over 1,000 yuan/ton, approaching the post - holiday high of 88,000 yuan. After the Fourth Plenary Session in China, the macro - environment has clearly improved. Against the background of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in domestic and international macro - environments, copper prices continue to rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [6]. - 沪铝: Today, Shanghai aluminum first declined and then rebounded. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. The inventories of domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have decreased, providing industrial support for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices have broken through the 21,000 - yuan mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [7]. - 沪镍: Today, Shanghai nickel first declined and then rebounded, standing above the 122,000 - yuan mark at the close. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. Nickel prices are at a low level since September, but there is still industrial pressure, and the rebound of nickel prices is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: From the perspective of downstream industries of copper cable enterprises, the State Grid has released scattered orders, with limited scale and mainly for rigid demand; new orders for automobile wiring harnesses are suppressed by high copper prices. In terms of inventory, due to insufficient orders, enterprises only maintain rigid - demand procurement, and the raw material inventory ratio has decreased by 1.78 percentage points; enterprises have slowed down production and adopted a production - on - sales model, and the finished - product inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points [10]. - Nickel: On October 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum average price premium and discount, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][27][31] - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][39][40]