强预期弱现实，煤焦区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: This week, coke continued its pattern of declining supply and demand. As of the week ending October 24, the combined coke production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1107200 tons, a weekly decrease of 5100 tons. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 239900 tons, a weekly decrease of 10500 tons. In terms of inventory, coke accumulated in the upstream and mid - stream. Independent coking plants saw a stock increase of 13500 tons, and the four major ports had a stock increase of 49400 tons, while the coke inventory of downstream steel mills decreased by 62800 tons week - on - week. Overall, the game between upstream and downstream of coke intensified, with insufficient fundamental support. The relative positives were the cost support from coking coal and the sentiment support from the warming of domestic and international macro - environments [6][35]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending October 24, the daily average clean coal production of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76100 tons, a decrease of 1800 tons compared to the previous week and 1700 tons compared to the same period last year. In terms of imports, from the 13th to the 18th, the total number of vehicles passing through the Ganqimao Port was 7220. Political unrest in Mongolia in the middle and late October temporarily disrupted port clearance efficiency, and it was expected to basically recover by next week. The combined coke production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased by 5100 tons week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the upstream coal mine inventory decreased by 15900 tons, while the coking coal inventory of downstream independent coking plants increased significantly by 323300 tons to 1029700 tons. The economic and trade consultations between China and the United States from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia boosted the overall sentiment of the commodity market. Coking coal, as one of the leading varieties since the anti - involution, remained a key variety favored by long - position funds. Overall, there were no obvious short - term changes in the fundamentals of coking coal. Strong expectations supported the main coking coal contract to fluctuate strongly. Future attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US trade measures and supply changes in major production areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - Steel Inventory: In mid - October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1658000 tons, a 70000 - ton increase from the previous ten - day period, a 4.4% increase; 421000 tons more than at the beginning of the year, a 34.0% increase; 129000 tons more than the same ten - day period last month, an 8.4% increase; 115000 tons more than the same ten - day period last year, a 7.5% increase; and 7000 tons more than the same ten - day period the year before last, a 0.4% increase [8]. - Coking Coal Price: On October 24, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash prices including tax [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change from last weekend; it increased by 3.40% from the end of last month, decreased by 10.06% from the end of last year, and decreased by 19.58% compared to the same period. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase from last weekend, a 0.68% increase from the end of last month, a 9.26% decrease from the end of last year, and a 16.95% decrease compared to the same period [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1310 yuan/ton, a 3.97% increase from last weekend, a 2.34% increase from the end of last month, an 11.02% increase from the end of last year, and an 11.49% decrease compared to the same period. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1580 yuan/ton, a 0.64% increase from last weekend, a 1.86% decrease from the end of last month, a 6.04% increase from the end of last year, and a 9.20% decrease compared to the same period. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1690 yuan/ton, with no change from last weekend, a 1.17% decrease from the end of last month, a 10.46% increase from the end of last year, and a 5.06% decrease compared to the same period [10]. Related Charts - Coke Inventory: The report provides charts of 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants' coke inventory, and total coke inventory over different years [13][14][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts of mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal inventory over different years are presented [21][24][26]. - Other Charts: There are charts showing domestic steel - mill production (including blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (including clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (including coke - per - ton profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [27][28][30]. 4. Market Outlook - Coke: The situation of coke in the future will continue to be affected by the pattern of declining supply and demand. Pay attention to the cost support from coking coal and the impact of macro - environment changes [35]. - Coking Coal: The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious changes. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of strong expectations. Future attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US trade measures and supply changes in major production areas [36].