Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-24 10:55Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,100 and 1,350. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 37.43%, and its historical percentile is 71.00% [3]. - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,550 and 1,850. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 30.04%, and its historical percentile is 63.17% [3]. Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills' profit margins shrink and coke enterprises face difficulties in price hikes, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,780, 1,830) and 50% at (1,830 - 1,880) [3]. - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low mine开工率, and potential supply disruptions, coking plants worried about future price increases can buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,150, 1,180) and 50% at (1,120, 1,150) [3]. Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - Steel Products: On October 24, 2025, the inventory of rebar was 150,419 tons (up 1,437 tons day - on - day and down 148,632 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 137,065 tons (down 4,799 tons day - on - day and down 11,346 tons week - on - week) [4]. - Raw Materials: The inventory of iron ore was 700 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 700 lots week - on - week), coking coal was 100 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 100 lots week - on - week), coke was 2,070 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 40 lots week - on - week), ferrosilicon was 11,163 contracts (down 21 contracts day - on - day and down 1,042 contracts week - on - week), and ferromanganese was 44,876 contracts (down 960 contracts day - on - day and down 3,064 contracts week - on - week) [4]. Market Analysis - Positive Factors: In Q4, domestic mine开工率 is restricted by policies, coking coal supply elasticity is limited; the winter - storage scale in 2025 may be better than last year, supporting coal and coke prices; recent downstream restocking and reduced mine开工率 have improved coking coal inventory, and short - term coke prices may be strong due to supply tightness and cost support [4][6]. - Negative Factors: In the short term, steel inventory pressure is high, and if steel contradictions cannot be resolved, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal market [7]. Group 4: Price Data Coal and Coke Futures Price - Coking Coal: On October 24, 2025, the warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,238 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 38 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 11.0 yuan/ton (up 10.0 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 31.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. - Coke: The warehouse - receipt cost of Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke was 1,637 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 120.3 yuan/ton (up 10.5 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 38.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. Coal and Coke Spot Price - Coking Coal: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 1,127 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week) [9]. - Coke: The ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1,330 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week), and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1,530 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week) [10]. Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit was - 44 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10]. - Import Profit: The import profit of Mongolian coal under long - term contracts was 405 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 87 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the import profit of Australian medium - volatile coal was 164 yuan/ton (up 122 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10].