沥青周度报告-20251024

Report Summary - Market focus includes significant changes in US-Russia relations with US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EU approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [7] - Key data shows that as of October 22, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 31.1%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle; as of October 24, the weekly asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; and the social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [7] - The main view is that in the short term, asphalt presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply decreases seasonally as refineries enter maintenance, and demand is weak due to cold and rainy weather in the north. Crude oil is the main factor affecting the asphalt market. Recent geopolitical risks and supply tightening expectations have led to a rebound in oil prices, but the impact may not be sustainable, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2 [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are macro - improvement and geopolitical risks, while bearish factors are weak demand and potential OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Sanctions on Russia - The US Treasury sanctioned two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries on October 22, covering nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in H1). The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on the same day, including banning Russian LNG imports and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [12] - These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks and pushed up the market, but they are not a full - scale embargo. They mainly increase Russia's oil trade costs, with limited impact on global supply. The upward movement of the market is more emotional, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited due to expected supply surplus [12] Fed Rate Cut Expectations - Due to the US government shutdown, economic data is delayed, posing challenges to the Fed's decision - making. However, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are rising. As of October 23, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October is 96.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 96.5% [13] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the long - term quantitative tightening (QT) may be near the end. The support of potential rate cuts for the market is limited [13] IEA Forecast - The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production increases are putting more pressure on the supply side, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to be more severe [14] Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week. Output from local refineries decreased significantly, while that from major refineries was basically flat. Major refineries' operating rates may have peaked, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15] - As of October 22, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.1%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle. The operating rates in South China and Shandong decreased significantly. With major refineries entering seasonal maintenance, supply pressure is expected to ease [23] Demand - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt shipment volume was 429,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous statistical date. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipment volume is likely to decline seasonally [24] - As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.09%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter as the downstream enters the off - season [27] Inventory - As of October 24, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decrease in East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has affected construction and inventory turnover, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing [36] - As of October 24, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August but at a slower pace [41] Spread - As of October 24, the weekly processing profit of domestic asphalt was - 337.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 193 yuan/ton, and as of October 22, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.72 [50] Market Outlook - In the short term, asphalt maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply is affected by refinery maintenance, and the demand is limited by weather. Crude oil is the key factor for the asphalt market. Geopolitical risks have led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability is uncertain. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2. The BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton is recommended for attention [52]