国债期货日报：关注资本市场情绪-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly affected by capital market sentiment. Although the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, its impact has been greatly reduced compared to the third quarter. Currently, there are few tradable hotspots in the bond market itself. It is recommended to adopt a bullish trading strategy, buying on dips and not chasing highs. Additionally, pay attention to whether there are relevant news about Sino - US trade negotiations over the weekend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions on October 24, 2025 - Futures Market: All varieties of Treasury bond futures closed down in a volatile manner. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields increased. The funds were loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 16.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 320 million yuan [1]. - Intraday News: - The main goals of economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial improvement in technological self - reliance and self - strength, new breakthroughs in comprehensive deepening of reforms, an obvious improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier [2]. - Zheng Shanjie of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China will recreate a high - tech industry in the next 10 years, develop emerging pillar industries, accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy, and promote new economic growth points such as quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth - generation mobile communications [2]. 3.2 Impact on the Bond Market - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" development goals, the A - share market opened higher and moved higher today. The technology sector led the market to break through again, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high. As a result, the bond market closed down in a volatile manner [3]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Data | Contract | October 24, 2025 | October 23, 2025 | Change Today | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.334 | 102.342 | - 0.008 | | TF2512 | 105.615 | 105.665 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.015 | 108.07 | - 0.055 | | TL2512 | 115.03 | 115.3 | - 0.27 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0118 | - 0.0297 | 0.0179 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0337 | - 0.0405 | 0.0068 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0436 | - 0.0074 | 0.051 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.136 | 0.319 | - 0.183 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76425 | 76588 | - 163 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 151744 | 152409 | - 665 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 261298 | 262198 | - 900 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 176081 | 175682 | 399 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 26194 | 32327 | - 6133 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 46576 | 59535 | - 12959 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67873 | 76898 | - 9025 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 127270 | 136162 | - 8892 | [4]