苹果产业风险管理日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the late stage of apple harvest. Continuous rainy weather has significantly reduced apple quality, leading to a large price gap between high - quality and low - quality apples [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include delayed apple harvest in Yantai, higher opening prices of western late - Fuji apples, and expected lower effective inventory in major producing areas. Bearish factors include slow consumption in the National Day market and inventory backlog in transit warehouses [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 8400 - 9000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.6% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2601, sell, 25%, entry range 8900 - 9000) and sell call options (AP2601C8800, sell, 25%, entry range 200 - 300) to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about high apple purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and scarce high - quality new - crop apples, they can buy apple futures (AP2601, buy, 75%, entry range 8600 - 8700) and sell put options (AP2511P8600, buy, 75%, entry range 150 - 180) to lock in procurement costs and reduce expenses [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures contracts such as AP01, AP03, etc., have different daily and weekly price changes. For example, AP01 closed at 8850 on October 24, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 2.61%. Spot prices of different apple varieties also have their own price trends, like the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75, with no daily change and a 1% weekly decrease [8]. Apple Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 6.79 (data from Steel Union), with a weekly decrease of 2.28. As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 14.79 (data from Zhuochuang), with a weekly decrease of 6.02. The arrival volume of apples at Guangdong wholesale markets also had weekly changes, such as 26 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong with a decrease of 2 [9].