宏观策略周报：二十届四中全会胜利召开，审议通过“十五五”规划建议-20251024

Key Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [10][11][12] - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 101.50 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [15][16] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in October, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [18][21] - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [21][22] Market Overview - Major domestic stock indices performed well, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 8.05% [26][27] - The economic operation showed multi-dimensional characteristics, with GDP growth in the third quarter rebounding to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][15] - The real estate market is in an adjustment phase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices [2][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to benefit from current policies promoting new productive forces [3][34] - Non-bank financial institutions, particularly brokerages, may benefit from a slow bull market [3][34] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to see sustained demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions [3][34] - The storage sector is anticipated to have broad prospects driven by policy support [3][34] - The machinery sector, particularly engineering machinery and heavy trucks, is expected to benefit from increased manufacturing activity following overseas interest rate cuts [3][35] - Domestic consumption is expected to be boosted, releasing residents' consumption capacity [3][36]