黑色金属日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure with weak domestic demand and fluctuating sentiment, while exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be prone to rise due to certain expectations, despite pressure from steel mills' profit margins. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as production, demand, and external trade frictions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to recover but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory decreased. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain still fermented repeatedly. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. The market sentiment cooled, and the futures prices were under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. The global supply was strong, and the domestic arrival volume declined from a high level. Port inventory increased significantly this week. On the demand side, molten iron production declined from a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to shrink. With the end of the peak season and the contraction of steel mill profits, there was still pressure for molten iron production cuts. The market had certain expectations for policy benefits, and sentiment improved. It is expected that the short - term trend will be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose today. Molten iron production remained high, and the steel - making profit level was average, suppressing the coke price increase rate. The second round of price increases for coking started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers purchased on a small - scale as needed and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices. The coke futures prices were at a premium, and the price was likely to be prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Recently, there was political turmoil in Mongolia, and the market was worried about the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and transaction prices increased. Terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. With safety inspections approaching in major coal - producing areas, production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level, providing support for raw materials. However, steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices [6] Silicomanganese - Today's silicomanganese prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The impact of external trade frictions should be continuously monitored [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. The impact of external trade frictions should be concerned [8]