国投期货农产品日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy: Beans for domestic consumption, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Hold: Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - Uncertainties remain high in the agricultural products market, with significant impact from Sino-US trade relations and policy guidance [3][4][6] - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to many uncertain factors, and look for investment opportunities [3] - Long-term, it is advisable to allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans for Domestic Consumption - The main contract of domestic soybeans rose and then fell. The trading volume was 52,003 tons, with a trading rate of 79.76% and an average price of 3,910 yuan/ton, providing market guidance [2] - The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rose and then fell. Pay attention to the impact of short-term profit-taking [2] - Keep an eye on policy guidance in the short term [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybeans rose 0.58% in shock, and domestic bean meal spot prices generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3] - Overall, soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino-US trade relations deteriorate [3] - If Sino-US trade relations do not ease, Dalian soybeans are likely to continue to fluctuate. Wait and see for opportunities [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil-to-meal ratio continued to decline [4] - Palm oil enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Its price depends on production reduction performance. Pay attention to the adjustment risk of the oil-to-meal ratio [4] - In the long term, allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price corrections of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures showed small fluctuations. Rapeseed oil slightly reduced positions, and the market was still cautious [6] - Coastal oil mills have low rapeseed inventories, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil [6] - The main contract price of rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations and consider cross-competitor strategies with rapeseed as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures traded sideways. Northeast corn prices were stable, and Shandong's corn supply increased [7] - Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures' near-term contracts fluctuated, and far-term contracts hit new lows [8] - Spot prices were stable, and second-round fattening sentiment weakened [8] - There is an expectation of improved pork consumption in the fourth quarter, but maintain a short-selling strategy after the price rebounds [8] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded with reduced positions. Spot prices rebounded [9] - Pay attention to short-term risks. There may be a decline in the medium term [9]