白糖产业风险管理日报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October is suppressing sugar prices. Typhoons in late September and early October affected Guangxi, causing significant sugarcane lodging, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2601) at 5500 - 5550 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR601C5600) at 25 - 30 with a 50% ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2601) at 5400 - 5420 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR601P5300) at 20 - 25 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus continues. The expected production increase in India and Thailand in October is keeping sugar prices low. Typhoons in late September and early October damaged sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are still unknown [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Yunnan's Sugar Production: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, about 51 - 52 sugar mills in Yunnan are expected to start operations. In late October, 2 mills are expected to start, and in early November, 2 - 3 mills are expected to start, 1 - 2 more than last year. Typhoons have affected some areas, potentially impacting sugarcane yield and sugar content [5]. - Brazil's Shipping and Exports: As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 90 from 83 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased by 11.91 million tons (3.3%) to 3.7272 million tons. In the first two weeks of October, Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses, a 9.45% increase from the same period last year [5]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Inner Mongolia's Sugar Production: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, all 12 planned sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operations. Affected by rainfall in September, the start - up time was delayed by about 10 days, and beet sugar content decreased. The estimated sugar output is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, similar to the previous season [6]. - Xinjiang's Sugar Production: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operations, and the last one is expected to start after October 20. With good weather, the output is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - Brazil's Sugar Production: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.858 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a 10.76% increase. From the start of the 2025/26 season to the second half of September, the cumulative sugar production was 33.524 million tons, an 0.84% increase [9]. - Brazil's Sugarcane Planting Forecast: Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.355219 million hectares, a 1.5% increase from last month's forecast and the same as in 2024. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 695.532937 million tons, the same as last month's forecast but a 1.6% decrease from 2024 [10]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - Basis: On October 23, 2025, the basis between Nanning and various futures contracts showed daily and weekly declines. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 293, with a daily decline of 31 and a weekly decline of 89 [11]. - Futures Prices and Spreads: On October 24, 2025, most sugar futures contracts showed slight declines. For example, SR01 closed at 5446, a 0.2% daily decline but a 0.63% weekly increase [12]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On October 24, 2025, the spot price of Nanning was 5750, unchanged daily but a 40 - point weekly decline. The price difference between Nanning and other regions also changed [13]. - Sugar Import Prices: On October 24, 2025, the quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand both decreased. For example, the in - quota import price from Brazil was 4166, a 29 - point daily decline and a 168 - point weekly decline [14].