热点追踪周报：由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第216期）-20251024

• The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify leading stocks. The model's construction is inspired by momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been shown to be effective in various studies. It calculates the distance of a stock's closing price from its 250-day high using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values represent the percentage drop from the high[11] - The model evaluates the 250-day new high distance for major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index. As of October 24, 2025, the distances for these indices are 0.00%, 3.18%, 1.04%, 3.85%, 2.99%, 3.14%, 2.77%, and 4.99%, respectively[12][13] - The report also tracks sectoral and conceptual indices. For example, the communication, petrochemical, utilities, construction, and electronics sectors are closest to their 250-day highs, with distances of 0.47%, 1.23%, 0.46%, 0.32%, and 4.28%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like food and beverage, comprehensive finance, banking, consumer services, and pharmaceuticals are farther from their highs[13][15] - A screening method is applied to identify "stable new high stocks" from the pool of stocks that hit 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days. The criteria include analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months), relative strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price stability (measured by price path smoothness), and trend persistence (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and the last five days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected[25][28] - The report highlights sectoral distribution of stable new high stocks. The technology and manufacturing sectors dominate, with 18 and 14 stocks, respectively. Within these, the electronics and machinery industries have the highest representation[29][30] - The report identifies 1123 stocks that hit 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days. The electronics, machinery, and basic chemicals industries have the highest counts, with 178, 144, and 114 stocks, respectively. The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the non-ferrous metals, coal, and electronics industries, with 59.68%, 47.22%, and 36.85%, respectively[19][20] - By index distribution, the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR 50 indices have new high stock proportions of 18.75%, 24.10%, 31.60%, 30.67%, 33.00%, and 42.00%, respectively[20][34]