Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, stabilizing, and rebounding slightly. Driven by macro - sentiment and industrial factors, it is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6]. - The methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing slightly lower. Driven by the cost logic supported by the small increase in domestic coal futures prices, it offset the weak supply - demand structure of domestic methanol, and the methanol futures started an oscillating consolidation trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, rising steadily, and closing sharply higher. After the previous weak macro - factors were corrected and combined with the prominent geopolitical risks in South America, the crude oil futures regained premium support [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was steadily expanding. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with 1.8651 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 71.61%, with a week - on - week decline of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 54.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was - 252 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decline of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared with 469,600 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 136,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight increase of 3.235 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 85.7%, a week - on - week decline of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decline of 2.0 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average in August, a decline of 15.65%. As of October 14, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts compared with the average in September, a decline of 49.01% [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,335 yuan/ton | +90 yuan/ton | - 835 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | 2,272 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 438.5 yuan/barrel | +5.3 yuan/barrel | 464.9 yuan/barrel | +5.2 yuan/barrel | - 26.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][18][19]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, inland social methanol inventory, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [32][35][38]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [49][51][53].
偏多氛围支撑能化震荡企稳：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-24 11:37