南华期货铁矿石周报：超季节性累库，价格承压运行-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is facing pressures of abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand growth. The industrial chain contradictions are difficult to ease before large - scale substantial production cuts by steel mills. After macro events are finalized, the market will return to fundamental - driven, and iron ore prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure [3]. - Currently, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply and demand, with prices under significant pressure. The supply side is abundant, and the demand side has limited growth, and the macro - level lacks policy support for iron ore demand [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - Likely Positive Factors: The daily average pig iron output remains around 2.4 million tons, providing basic demand support [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" reduces dependence on traditional infrastructure and real estate; global iron ore shipments are at a high level with a year - to - date cumulative incremental of 19 million tons; hot - rolled coil inventories are accumulating seasonally, and export profits are shrinking; steel mill profits are dropping significantly, and the pressure of production cut feedback is increasing; rising coking coal prices are squeezing steel mill profits and the upside price space of iron ore; the 45 - port iron ore inventory has reached 144 million tons, with nearly 4 million tons of inventory accumulation in the past two weeks, suppressing prices [5]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Operate the Iron Ore 2601 contract within the range of [760, 810] [9]. - Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For those with spot inventory and worried about future price drops, directly short iron ore futures (I2511) with a 25% short position at 800 - 810, and sell call options (I2511 - C - 850) with a 30% position at high prices [10]. - Procurement Management: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, directly long iron ore futures (I2511) with a 30% long position at 750 - 760, and sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790) with a 40% position at high prices [10]. - Core Data - Cost - profit Table: In the week of October 24, 2025, the iron water cost was 2463.56 yuan/ton, the blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast furnace rebar profit was - 56 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62% [10]. - Weekly Shipment Data: The global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, with an increase of 1.26 million tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Weekly Demand Data: The daily average ore handling volume was 3.1265 million tons, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.399 million tons [11]. - Inventory Data: The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 144.2359 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.4532 million tons [13]. Chapter 2: Supply - Global Shipment Analysis: Global iron ore shipments are at a high level, with the year - to - date cumulative incremental reaching 19 million tons. Shipments from major mines and non - major mines have both increased [5][6]. - Analysis of Shipments from Four Major Mines: Shipments from Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, and FMG have shown different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - Analysis of Non - major Mine Shipments: Non - major mine shipments are also relatively strong, and the Platts iron ore index leads non - major mine shipments by about 5 weeks [29]. - Arrival and Berthing Analysis: The arrival volume at 47 ports and related berthing data such as the number of ships in port and berthing days are presented in a seasonal analysis [31][33]. - Capsize Shipping Analysis: Analyzes the freight prices, shipping speeds, and sea - floating inventories of Capesize ships [39][46]. - Domestic Ore Supply Analysis: Presents the production of domestic iron ore concentrates from 186 and 433 mine enterprises in a seasonal analysis [49]. Chapter 3: Demand Analysis - Pig Iron Analysis: Analyzes the seasonal trends of pig iron output, the relationship between pig iron output and iron ore prices, and the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron output [52]. - Steel Mill Profit Analysis: Analyzes the production profits of different steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the profitability rate of steel mills, and shows that profits guide future steel production [58][66]. - Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and cost - price relationship of rebar [72]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [80]. - Medium - thick Plate: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [85]. - Off - balance - sheet Steel: Estimates the off - balance - sheet production and analyzes the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, and galvanized sheets [89]. - Export Analysis: Analyzes China's steel export volume, port departure volume, export orders, and export profits [106]. Chapter 4: Inventory Analysis - Port Inventory Analysis: Analyzes the seasonal trends of 45 - port iron ore inventories, including the inventory of different types of iron ore, the proportion of trading ores, and the ratio of different types of iron ore in the total inventory [110]. - Other Inventory Analysis: Analyzes the inventories of steel mills, including in - plant inventories, sea - floating in - transit inventories, and inventory turnover days [128]. Chapter 5: Valuation Analysis - Basis and Term Structure: Presents the basis data of different iron ore varieties and the term structure of iron ore futures [130]. - Rebar - to - Ore and Hot - rolled Coil - to - Ore Ratios: Analyzes the seasonal trends of rebar - to - ore and hot - rolled coil - to - ore ratios [133]. - Coking Coal Ratio Analysis: Analyzes the seasonal trends of the price differences between coking coal and iron ore [135]. - Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis: Analyzes the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel through the iron - scrap price difference and its relationship with pig iron and scrap steel consumption [138].