Dongguan Securities·2025-10-24 12:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry chain [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments increased by over 60% year-on-year, with total shipments for the first three quarters exceeding 30% of last year's total [4][40] - The domestic energy storage cell supply is tight, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity, and this supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue until Q1 2026 [4][45] - The new energy vehicle market is in a traditional peak season, particularly with rapid growth in sales of new energy commercial vehicles, sustaining overall demand for lithium batteries [4][45] - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies, and anticipates increased demand for materials and equipment in the industry chain [4][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, the lithium battery index fell by 9.36% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.17 percentage points [11] - Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has risen by 49.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 31.97 percentage points [11] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of October 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 CNY/ton, up 2.61% in the last two weeks [25] - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 72,200 CNY/ton, increasing by 0.84% [25] - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 CNY/ton, down 2.62% [28] - The price of NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 increased by 16.26%, 13.20%, and 8.36% respectively [28] - The price of electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 38.10% to 87,000 CNY/ton [31] - The average price of wet separators is 0.73 CNY/sqm, up 5.80% [36] Industry News - The report notes that in Q3 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 165 GWh, a 65% year-on-year increase [40] - The report also highlights that from January to September 2025, lithium battery exports increased by 19.14% in quantity and 26.75% in value [40] - The global battery production in September 2025 was 216.7 GWh, a 50.8% year-on-year increase [40] Company Announcements - The report identifies key companies to watch, including CATL, EVE Energy, and others, due to their technological and cost advantages in the industry [4][47] - CATL reported a net profit of 49.034 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a 36.20% increase year-on-year [47] - EVE Energy's battery shipments reached 34.59 GWh, a 66.98% increase year-on-year [47]