中航期货铝产业链周度报告-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The start of China-US economic and trade consultations and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [11][13]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to recover significantly, and the import volume of bauxite may gradually increase after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [18][21]. - The oversupply expectation of alumina remains unchanged, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase further in October [23][27]. - The real estate market is weak, while the new energy industry maintains a high level of prosperity [36][39]. - Inventories at domestic and foreign exchanges are decreasing synchronously, and the domestic spot has changed from flat to discount [42][47]. - The production of recycled aluminum is expected to decline slightly in October, and the import growth of unforged aluminum alloy in October is limited [50][54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The start of China-US economic and trade consultations has increased market risk appetite, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal has enhanced market confidence. The domestic bauxite supply is expected to recover, and the alumina supply oversupply situation remains. The production of electrolytic aluminum may increase, while the real estate market is weak and the new energy industry is prosperous. Inventories are decreasing, and the recycled aluminum and unforged aluminum alloy markets have their own characteristics [11][13][18] 3.2 Multi-Empty Focus - Positive Factors: China-US economic and trade consultations, the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, the recovery of bauxite supply, the increase in electrolytic aluminum production, and the high prosperity of the new energy industry [11][13][18] - Negative Factors: The weakness of the real estate market, the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the limited growth of unforged aluminum alloy imports [36][50][54] 3.3 Data Analysis - Raw Materials: In September, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.32%. The import volume of bauxite in September was 15.88 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% [18][21]. - Intermediate Products: In September, the output of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 1.7% month-on-month and increased by 5.3% year-on-year. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [24][27]. - Downstream Consumption: The real estate market is weak, with a year-on-year decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales volume. The new energy vehicle industry is booming, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales in September [37][40]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory and SHFE aluminum inventory are both decreasing. As of October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 618,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7,000 tons [43][45]. - Price: The domestic spot has changed from flat to discount, and the LME aluminum premium has decreased [47]. - Recycled Aluminum: In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy in September decreased by 13.2% year-on-year [50][54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain high due to the firm price of scrap aluminum and the decline in recycled aluminum inventory [61].