中航期货铜产业链周度报告-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - Bearish Factors: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - Supply - side Data: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - Demand - side Data: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - Inventory Data: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].