Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the analysis of various energy and chemical products, including their market logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. It suggests waiting for the end of the crude oil rebound and looking for opportunities in the low prices of weak energy and chemical products during the crude oil rebound. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Logic: The US Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical disturbances. After the market digests the short - term geopolitical benefits, it will return to supply - demand drivers [2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to rebound with reduced positions, but the trading volume was insufficient after the intraday high, closing with a long upper shadow. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the end of the rebound, and the short - term support is at the 459 level [2]. - Strategy: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. 2. Benzene Styrene (EB) - Logic: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance and a small decline in production, the port inventory, a characteristic of hazardous chemicals, is still slowly accumulating and is at a sky - high level year - on - year. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The market has already priced in some expectations, so no short - chasing is recommended [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the pressure from a high position, then moved lower and closed down with a large increase in positions. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged. After the contract change, the short - term pressure level for the December contract is at the 6630 level [5]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level and consider shorting again if there is a rebound [5]. 3. Rubber - Logic: The weather in Southeast Asia has improved, and the supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, and the pressure of slow de - stocking of the large domestic inventory remains high [7]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure level is at the 15450 level [7]. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The tire enterprises' high - inventory pressure remains, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of butadiene may decline rapidly, driving the synthetic rubber price down [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Pay attention to the suppression of the pressure level, with the short - term pressure at the 11300 level [11]. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [11]. 5. PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation of PX improved slightly last week, but the overall high - supply pattern remains unchanged. Its main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [13]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the support at the 6425 level [13]. - Strategy: Wait and see at the hourly level [13]. 6. PTA - Logic: Under the expectation of new device production and restart, the supply pressure of PTA is still large, and the demand remains flat. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support at the 4470 level [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see at the hourly level [16]. 7. PP - Logic: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is also low. The cost - side pressure is brought by the decline of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term pressure at the 6740 level. There was a reverse - wrapping pattern near the pressure, but the trading volume was insufficient [20]. - Strategy: Continue to wait and see at the hourly level [20]. 8. Methanol - Logic: The monthly - spread structure has strengthened this week, indicating potential long - trading opportunities. Due to seasonal factors, the 01 contract of methanol has some long - trading logic compared with other energy and chemical products. However, the short - term long - trading time has not arrived. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it declined with increased positions, with the short - term pressure at the 2320 level [24]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level cautiously, with the 2320 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. Consider using methanol as a long - position in the hedging strategy after it breaks through the pressure level [24]. 9. PVC - Logic: Under the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" model, the supply of PVC maintains high - level production. The domestic real - estate demand is still low year - on - year, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [28]. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The restart of previously overhauled devices and the expected increase in production capacity have increased the supply pressure. The port inventory has started to accumulate, and the support of low inventory has disappeared [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support below 4045 [29]. - Strategy: Stop - profit on short positions at the hourly level [29]. 11. Plastic - Logic: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost - side is affected by the decline of crude oil [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6940 level. The short - term structure has turned bullish [31]. - Strategy: Stop - profit on the remaining short positions at the hourly level [31]. 12. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash has intensified. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The market is under downward pressure [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [35]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [35]. 13. Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the recovery of previously overhauled devices and the commissioning of new devices. The downstream demand is weak, with limited profit in the alumina industry [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure continues. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level [36]. - Strategy: Wait and see after stopping - profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].
等待原油反弹结束时点与原油反弹时弱势，能化品种新低机会
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-10-24 13:00