宏观点评20251024：“创新牛”进入蓄势期，行业风格如何轮动？-20251024

Market Overview - The market has entered a wedge-shaped fluctuation since September, accumulating risks due to uncertainties in US-China relations, the release of Q3 earnings, and increasing valuation bubble risks[1] - The "Innovation Bull" market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a high probability of narrow index fluctuations and wide fluctuations in the technology sector from October to November[1] Industry Rotation - Leading sectors have shown signs of adjustment, with insufficient momentum for growth styles to digest valuations; defensive sectors are currently favored[2] - Within growth sectors, electronics remain strong but show weakening trends, while communication is experiencing a weak rebound; cyclical sectors like coal and petrochemicals are improving[2] Thematic and Industrial Opportunities - The marine economy is highlighted as a key area for development, with policies emphasizing "strengthening marine development and protection," which may lead to thematic market opportunities in October-November[3] - Emerging industries related to marine economy, such as offshore wind power and marine biomedicine, are expected to gain traction due to policy support[3] Long-term Trends of the "Innovation Bull" - Market liquidity and valuations have improved, with a significant portion of public fund net values exceeding 1, indicating potential for accelerated fund issuance[4] - The proportion of public funds with net values above 1 has surpassed 80%, suggesting that public funds will be a major source of incremental capital in the next phase[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include Q3 earnings falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in US-China relations, and extreme structural market conditions[4]