能化板块周度报告-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, although the cost center has shifted upwards, the supply - demand drivers are insufficient, and the polyester sector's enthusiasm to follow the rise in crude oil is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situation changes. - In the medium - to - long - term, the expected increase in supply and the non - significant peak demand characteristics put pressure on the polyester sector as a whole [30][31] Methanol Sector - In the short - term, the supply side is slightly shrinking, the high - inventory problem at ports remains unsolved, and the upward space is limited. MTO is still the main demand force, but the recent losses have intensified, and the traditional downstream performs poorly. Methanol is mainly in a short - term range - bound oscillation due to coal cost support. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. Attention should be paid to the reduction in imports caused by the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The US plans to sanction two major Russian oil companies, and the EU has passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Russia believes these sanctions will not achieve the expected results. - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, indicating resilient energy demand. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 - 27 [5][6][7] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of WTI crude, PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR all increased week - on - week, with WTI crude rising 7.65%. Spot prices of related products also generally increased. - PX, PTA, and other product bases showed different degrees of change, with PX base increasing by 192.58% [9] Supply - Side Situation - PX: Urumqi Petrochemical plans to restart on October 29, and Asian PX load has slightly declined. This week, domestic PX production decreased, and next week's supply is expected to increase slightly. - PTA: Hengli Petrochemical's 220 - million - ton No. 1 device restarted on October 24, and this week's domestic PTA production increased, with social inventory decreasing. - Ethylene Glycol: This week, domestic ethylene glycol production slightly increased, but the load decreased. Next week, due to device overhauls, supply will slightly decrease, and port inventory decreased this week [14][17][18] Demand - Side Situation - The average weekly polyester start - up rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, and long - fiber inventory decreased during the week. - As of October 24, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the number of orders from Chinese weaving sample enterprises increased, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased [19][22][28] Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 2.03%, and the base decreased by 45.45%. The spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 2.99%, and the methanol CFR decreased by 1.04%. The prices of downstream products such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid generally decreased [33] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased, and natural - gas - based production continued to lose money. The overall demand - side profit of methanol declined significantly, and production enterprises suffered serious losses [39] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 23, the methanol start - up rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points, and the output was 194.35 million tons, a decrease of 2%. This week, the number of overhauled devices was greater than that of resumed devices. Next week, some devices plan to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42][49] Demand - Side Situation - Affected by profit compression, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. MTO is still the main downstream demand force, with a load fluctuating around 91%. Traditional downstream industries performed poorly, and it is expected that MTO will continue to decline next week [45][49] Inventory Situation - As of October 22, port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, and inland inventory was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. Port inventory slightly increased, and inland inventory also increased slightly [48][49]