螺矿产业链周度报告-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern of steel. The peak season is ending, and if demand falls in the off - season, steel mills may increase production cuts. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][63]. - Iron ore prices are also expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The market is concerned about whether steel mills will reduce production, which may lead to a decline in hot metal production. The supply of iron ore has some changes, and the production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter are different with limited expected increase in the fourth quarter [5][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five - Year Plan. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5]. - Key Data: In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3%. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - Main Views: Steel prices were weak this week due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations improved the external environment, domestic economic growth slowed in September. The steel fundamentals are still weak, and attention should be paid to whether steel mills will cut production. Iron ore prices were also weak due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production, with changes in supply and demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - For Steel (Thread): Bullish factors include the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, high steel exports, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September and the approaching end of the peak demand season [8]. - For Iron Ore: Bullish factors are the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September, the approaching end of the peak demand season, the decline in hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session were held. The external environment is expected to improve. However, domestic economic growth slowed in the third quarter, with GDP increasing by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. The growth of social consumer goods and fixed - asset investment slowed down [10][15]. - Terminal: In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, mainly due to the low base and the relatively resilient global demand. Steel exports were still high but faced challenges. In September, automobile production and sales reached a record high, and new energy vehicles continued to be the main growth driver. Excavator production continued to grow, and the construction machinery industry was booming [16][21][27]. - (Thread) Spot: The spot price of thread fluctuated slightly, and the basis changed little [28]. - Supply: In September, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [32]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills decreased by 7.79 percentage points to 47.62% this week [33]. - Output: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44 percentage points to 84.71%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99 percentage points to 67.86%. The production of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [35][37]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil continued to recover this week [39]. - Inventory: The total inventory of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased this week, showing a trend of de - stocking [43]. - Spread: The spread between hot - rolled coil and thread widened [44]. - (Iron Ore) Spot: The spot price of iron ore increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [46]. - Import and Shipment: In September, China imported 116.326 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipment increased [50]. - Shipment: The production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter were different, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [51]. - Arrival: From October 13th to 19th, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased [54]. - Hot Metal Production: The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.05 tons this week [55]. - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased by 145.32 tons this week, and the daily average port clearance volume decreased [59]. - Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 96.47 tons this week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.89 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 0.42 days [61]. 3.4后市研判 - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to demand changes and whether steel mills will cut production [63]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production and the accumulation of port inventory [65].