东莞证券财富通每周策略-20251024

Market Overview - The market showed a strong recovery this week, with all three major indices closing in the green after two weeks of adjustment, indicating strong investor willingness to buy [1][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.73%, the ChiNext Index surged by 8.05%, the STAR 50 Index climbed by 7.27%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index gained 2.74% [1][6] Economic Analysis - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter was in line with expectations, showing resilience in external demand while internal demand remained weak. The GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with the third quarter showing a growth of 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [2][11] - The economic performance showed a disparity, with external demand remaining resilient while consumption and investment indicators were generally weak. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed initial signs of improvement, although inflation remains a weak variable [3][11] Policy Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a focus on institutional innovation to drive economic growth. This is expected to provide clearer medium- to long-term policy expectations for the market [2][12] - Short-term economic pressures are manageable, with fiscal policies accelerating and monetary policies shifting towards a more accommodative stance. The potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the fourth quarter is anticipated to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [3][13] Sector Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment for potential investment opportunities [4][15]