传媒行业点评：从日历效应看传媒行业，当前或是布局良机

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The media industry exhibits significant calendar effects, particularly in February and November, which historically show high positive return probabilities. The report suggests that the current market conditions may present a good opportunity for investment [3][4][5]. - The report highlights that the media sector has experienced a notable adjustment in October, with upcoming third-quarter earnings risks expected to be released, providing a potential upward basis for the industry [4][11]. - Key drivers for the media sector's performance include the ongoing improvement in the gaming and trendy toy industries, the introduction of the "21 Regulations" in broadcasting, and the continuous advancement of AI applications [4][24]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - From January 2008 to September 2025, the media industry has shown a monthly average return of 0.25%, with 43 positive return months, indicating a 46.24% probability of positive returns. Notably, February and November are the best-performing months [6][11]. - The gaming sub-sector has a higher average monthly return of 0.64% and a positive return probability of 44.09% [6]. Current Market Conditions - In the first half of 2025, the media sector achieved revenues of 254.9 billion and a net profit of 21.8 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.06% and 28.70%, respectively [15][22]. - The gaming sector specifically reported revenues of 27.7 billion and a net profit of 4.6 billion in Q2 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.40% and 104.47% [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the gaming and trendy toy sectors, such as Giant Network, Kaineng Network, and Jibite, as well as emphasizing AI-driven short dramas and content platforms like Mango Super Media and Bilibili [4][32]. - The report also suggests that the recent adjustments in the media sector provide a favorable opportunity for investment, particularly in AI applications and content policy shifts [4][32].