2025Q3 可转债复盘：从主题热潮到高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, convertible bonds first rose and then fluctuated under the influence of multiple internal and external factors. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 9.43% in Q3, with its valuation rising by 5.72 pct to 30.44% compared to the end of June. However, it underperformed major stock indices. The market can be divided into two stages: a fast - bull market catalyzed by the "anti - involution" and technology themes in July, and a high - level oscillation after September due to factors such as the redemption of secondary bond funds and the weakening of the equity market [2][9]. - Looking ahead to Q4, the support on the demand side of convertible bonds may weaken. Insurance funds and general institutions may reduce their convertible bond assets, which may bring pressure on the clearance of high - rated convertible bonds. Opportunities may lie in low - priced and bond - biased convertible bonds with cost - effectiveness [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025Q3 Convertible Bond Market: From Theme Craze to High - Level Oscillation - Overall Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 9.43% in Q3 2025, outpacing the cumulative increase in the first half of the year. However, it underperformed major stock indices. The convertible bond market first rose rapidly and then oscillated. The valuation of convertible bonds first increased and then decreased, and the proportion of low - parity bonds continued to shrink. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors performed strongly [2][9][15]. - Convertible Bond Terms: In Q3 2025, 112 convertible bonds triggered the call - back clause, with 61 announced for redemption, and the call - back probability was 54.46%. The number of times the downward - revision clause was triggered decreased, but the downward - revision probability increased to 14.55%. The risk of put - back was relatively controllable [3][22][23]. - Supply and Demand Structure: - Supply: As of September 30, 2025, 28 convertible bonds were issued in the year, with a scale of 36.948 billion yuan. The number decreased by 3.45% and the scale increased by 56.34% compared to the same period in 2024. The scale of new issuance plans in Q3 was 35.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 166.32%. High - rated and large - cap convertible bonds had weak issuance. The stock of convertible bonds continued to shrink, and it was expected to continue to decline in Q4 [4][26][37]. - Demand: Most major holders reduced their positions, while public funds increased their holdings. As of the end of September, public funds held 233.561 billion yuan of convertible bonds, a 7.68% increase from the end of June. Enterprise annuities and insurance institutions significantly reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [38][45][48]. 3.2 Stage Review: From Theme Craze to High - Level Oscillation - July 1 - August 26: The equity market continued to rise after the market started at the end of June, breaking through the upper limit of the oscillation. The "anti - involution" policy and the Yajiang Hydropower Station project drove the equity market, and the TMT sector's performance in August further magnified the market. Public funds were the main force in increasing convertible bond holdings, and the share of convertible bond ETFs increased significantly. The premium rate of convertible bonds rose to 32.55% [5][58][63]. - August 27 - September 30: The equity market entered an oscillation phase. The TMT sector was still the main line, but external disturbances weakened market risk appetite. The redemption of bond funds at the end of August led to a short - term weakness in the demand side of convertible bonds. The share of convertible bond ETFs peaked and declined, and the premium rate of convertible bonds fell to 30.44% [66][68][71].