美国9月CPI通胀点评：12月降息也在路上？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - US CPI inflation in September was comprehensively lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of another rate cut in December rose to 96% [1][6]. - The current data dispelled concerns about "major stagflation" caused by tariffs. The increase in tariffs did not lead to a rise in the CPI growth rate, suggesting that tariffs are mainly borne by exporters or importers [5]. - The current CPI data may be crucial for the FOMC meeting on December 10th. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, and major commodity categories are expected to rise [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall CPI Data - In September, the year - on - year CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 2.9%); the month - on - month CPI was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value 0.4%). The year - on - year core CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.1%); the month - on - month core CPI was 0.2% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.3%) [1]. 2. Sub - item Analysis Food and Energy - Food inflation cooled down, with the food item's month - on - month rate at 0.2% (previous value 0.5%) and year - on - year rate at 3.1% (previous value 3.2%). Energy commodity prices rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8% (previous value 1.7%), and energy services' month - on - month rate dropped to - 0.7% (previous value - 0.2%). The overall energy item's month - on - month rate was 1.5%, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [2]. Core Goods - Driven by new and used cars, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core goods rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 1.5%, the same as the previous value. The reasons for the slowdown were the significant cooling of used car and auto parts inflation and the cooling of information technology products. However, furniture, clothing, leisure goods, and medical care products contributed more to inflation [3]. Core Services - Driven by housing and transportation services, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core services rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 3.5% (previous value 3.6%). The month - on - month growth rate of the largest - weighted housing item decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%, and transportation services inflation cooled down in September [4]. 3. Impact on the Market and Future Outlook - The comprehensively lower - than - expected CPI strengthened the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting is almost certain, and the probability of another cut in December rose to 96% [6]. - After the data release, US stock index futures rose, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, major commodity categories are expected to rise, and precious metals that have fallen recently are also expected to rebound. The overseas interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for funds to flow into emerging markets [6][7].