申万宏源交运一周天地汇：三大因素反转强调船舶板块历史机会，油轮影响因素过多转向现实驱动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, highlighting a shift from expectation-driven to reality-driven stock price movements, with sufficient safety margins around current valuations [5][6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) have reversed to positively impact the market. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily breaking through 2024 highs, indicating an approaching inflection point for new ship prices [5][6]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy, while also suggesting to monitor Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant upward revisions in global oil shipping profitability forecasts and reset costs, with current charter rates around $50,000 per day expected to rise [5][6]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Overview - VLCC rates stabilized at high levels around $80,000 per day, despite an 8% week-on-week decline to $78,862 per day. The overall market remains calm, with charterers attempting to suppress rates through private deals [5][6]. - The report notes a 5% week-on-week decline in Suezmax rates to $65,724 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 14% to $56,567 per day, indicating mixed market conditions [5][6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging global fleet expected to constrain supply over the next 5-10 years. This situation is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in airline profitability as demand for international flights increases [5][6]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions [5][6]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national railway freight reaching 80.32 million tons, a 2.33% week-on-week increase, and highway truck traffic increasing by 24.72% [5][6]. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a dividend yield of 8.09% and Zhonggu Logistics at 10.88%, indicating strong potential for income generation [5][6].