2025年9月美国CPI数据点评：美国通胀不及预期，为降息铺平道路

Inflation Data Summary - In September, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in the previous month, but below the market expectation of 3.1%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% previously and below the expected 0.4%[2] - Core CPI also increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.1% last month, and the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, down from 0.3%[2] Economic Implications - The mild inflation data reduces the risk of the Federal Reserve making uninformed decisions amid the government shutdown affecting non-farm data releases[3] - The overall inflation increase is tempered by declines in housing, used car, and truck prices, while tariff impacts continue to be felt in categories like appliances and furniture[3] - Market expectations are set for two rate cuts within the year, with probabilities of 96.7% for October and 94.4% for December, indicating a strong belief in easing monetary policy[7] Sector-Specific Insights - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, down from 0.5% in the previous month, with notable declines in beef prices[4] - Energy prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, although overall price increases remain limited[4] - Core goods prices fell to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, primarily due to a drop in used car and truck prices, which decreased from 1.0% to -0.4%[5]