股指期货周报："十五五”时期重科技创新、扩内需科技板块引领上证指数刷新年内高点-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst complex international situations and ongoing Sino-US negotiations, the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes scientific and technological innovation and domestic demand expansion, leading to a significant rebound in the technology sector. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds, and the stock index has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is conducive to RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflows. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and new technologies and consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, long - term funds and retail investors will enter a new investment cycle. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance (securities) and consumption [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. The Nasdaq rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the ChiNext Index soared 8.05%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.27% as of October 24, 2025. Most of the 81 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with the communications, electronics, and power equipment sectors rising significantly, while only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage sectors declined [11][15]. 2. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds boosted M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. The recovery of real - economy financing demand still needs time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing balance was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The growth rate slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new government bonds in September were 1.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 543.7 billion yuan [13][16]. - The fund rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was net - injected in September. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [16]. 3. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, trading volume in the two markets decreased, but the heavy trading on Friday drove the index to rebound. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring. The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations from January to August, with 1.57 million in January, 2.88 million in February, 3.06 million in March, 1.92 million in April, 1.555 million in May, 1.6464 million in June, 1.9636 million in July, and 2.6503 million in August [23][25]. 4. Index Valuation - As of October 24, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index is at a low level. The latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.94, with a quantile of 87.30, and the PE of the entire A - share market is 22.59, with a quantile of 88.43. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [32]. 5. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors are relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. In the SSE 300, the weights are more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [45][46]. 6. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 3% and the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were proposed, with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund rate was cut by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market, such as those in the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, were promoted [50][51]. - Overseas policy tracking: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 30%, and there are still two potential rate cuts this year. China has implemented "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth controls, which has led to Trump's counter - measures of imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18 [52][53].