美国9月CPI数据点评：通胀为何低预期？

Inflation Overview - In September 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.9% but below the market expectation of 3.1%[8] - Core CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of 3.1%[8] Price Trends - Food CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while energy CPI experienced a notable rise, primarily due to a significant increase in gasoline prices, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the overall CPI[11] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with clothing prices rising by 0.7%, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the overall CPI, while used car prices fell by 0.4%[11] Housing and Services - Housing inflation has cooled, with the housing CPI increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the overall CPI[11] - Core services CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with limited inflationary pressure observed in most service categories[11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The overall inflation data being lower than expected strengthens the likelihood of two interest rate cuts within the year, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in both October and December[11] - The Federal Reserve may adjust its stance on further rate cuts in the first half of next year based on employment performance and the impact of tariffs on inflation[11]