高频跟踪周报20251025：地产“银十”成色如何？-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in September was still bottoming out, and the restoration of the "Silver October" was uncertain. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and real estate development investment reached its largest decline of the year. It's expected that the real - estate policy toolbox may be further opened, but the probability of significant stimulus is low [1][14]. - The overall economic situation showed mixed performance in different sectors. Demand in the real - estate and consumer markets declined, production in some industries was stable while others declined, investment in some areas had different trends, trade showed signs of recovery, prices of various commodities fluctuated, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds was relatively high [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Catalog 1. Demand: New home sales down year - on - year, auto consumption declined - New home sales were down both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week of October 24, the transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing was 2410,000 square meters, down 3% month - on - month and 21% year - on - year. The performance of different city tiers varied. First - tier cities' sales increased by 10% month - on - month, second - tier cities decreased by 2%, and third - tier cities decreased by 18% [13]. - Second - hand home sales were also down month - on - month. In key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the transaction areas decreased, with Shenzhen and Hangzhou seeing significant drops [3][32]. - Auto consumption declined, with the average daily retail sales of passenger cars down 25.3% week - on - week, although up 0.3% year - on - year. National movie box office dropped 26.6% week - on - week and 57.7% year - on - year. The national migration scale index and first - tier city subway passenger volume also decreased [41]. 2. Production: Asphalt production rate dropped significantly, downstream production stabilized - In the mid - upstream, the production rate of rebar, PTA increased week - on - week, the production rate of polyester filament remained flat, and the production rate of asphalt plants dropped significantly by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1%. - In the downstream, the production rates of both all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles increased, with all - steel tires up 1.1% and semi - steel tires up 1.0% week - on - week [49]. 3. Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar increased, rebar prices continued to fall - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.8% week - on - week to 2.26 million tons, while the rebar price dropped 0.2% week - on - week to 3217.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price also dropped 0.5% week - on - week to 3213.6 yuan/ton [66]. - The cement price index dropped 0.3% week - on - week to 102.5 points. As of the week of October 17, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 38.4%, and the cement storage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 63.5% [66]. 4. Trade: Port throughput recovered, export container shipping prices rebounded - In terms of exports, port container throughput increased 3.6% week - on - week, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index increased 2.0% week - on - week, with the European route up 1.99% and the US West route up 1.48%, while the US East route decreased 0.1%. The BDI index increased 0.3% week - on - week [79]. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index was 655.5 points, up 3.5% week - on - week [79]. 5. Prices: Agricultural product prices continued to rise, coking coal futures had significant gains - The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased 1.5% week - on - week. Pork prices dropped 3.4% week - on - week, egg prices dropped 2.7% week - on - week, vegetable prices increased 4.5% week - on - week, and fruit prices dropped 0.3% week - on - week [91]. - The Nanhua industrial product price index increased 0.3% week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price increased 2.3% week - on - week, WTI crude oil futures price increased 1.9% week - on - week, IPE UK natural gas futures settlement price dropped 0.5% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price dropped 0.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased 0.9% week - on - week [97]. - In the commodity futures market, coking coal futures settlement price increased 18.9% week - on - week, urea futures settlement price increased 7.9% week - on - week, and coke futures settlement price increased 6.1% week - on - week. Polysilicon, glass, and iron ore futures settlement prices decreased [109]. 6. Interest - rate bond tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reached 99.7% - Next week (October 27 - 31), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 304.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 yuan, and the net financing is 0 yuan. The issuance of local bonds is 270.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 175.7 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - financial bonds is 34 billion yuan, with a net financing of 34 billion yuan [111]. - As of October 24, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds this year was 84.1%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 86.6%. The cumulative net issuance progress of national bonds was 89.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of policy - financial bonds was 96.9% [115][118][121]. 7. Policy weekly observation: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period - High - level meetings and documents: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized scientific planning for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of state - owned enterprises [122]. - Capital market: On October 24, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through strongly, reaching a new high in nearly a decade, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57%. - Macro data: China's GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year [122]. - Overseas news: The ECB's chief economist said that monetary easing was progressing smoothly. The US national debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars for the first time. The US CPI in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [123]. - Real - estate policies: Some cities optimized housing provident fund policies, and some cities promoted the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing [123].