生猪周报：等待反弹后抛空-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Views - The current slaughter scale and future theoretical出栏量 remain high, and the weight has decreased slightly during this decline. In the medium term, with a significantly high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short term, due to the resonance of multiple factors and the persistence of factors supporting the spot rebound, the futures market is prone to fluctuations due to changes in market drivers under high positions. A short - term rebound is expected. Mid - term, one can gradually establish reverse spread positions during the rebound and wait for the pressure level to arrive before gradually short - selling [11][12]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices for the unilateral strategy, and gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads for the arbitrage strategy [13]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Due to the warming demand after the temperature drop, along with the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and the entry of second - round fattening, domestic pig prices continued to rise last week, but the increase was small, and a wait - and - see sentiment emerged after the price increase. The slaughter volume remained high during the week. Group farms accelerated their sales, with a high plan completion rate, while the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell increased, and the number of pigs in pens rose. The spread between fat and standard pigs continued to widen. The average price in Henan rose by 0.56 yuan to 11.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.7 yuan to 11.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.2 yuan to 11.72 yuan/kg. The group's plan completion rate has been high this month, and there is room for a short - term reduction in supply near the end of the month, which supports prices. The demand side is stimulated by the temperature drop, with high slaughter orders, and there is still enthusiasm for second - round fattening in some areas. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - Supply Side: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction on the policy side, which may improve the supply next year in the context of no significant losses this year. The implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction needs to be closely monitored in the coming months. According to the published data, the month - on - month decrease in sow inventory in September was 0.33% according to Steel Union and 0.84% according to Yongyi, indicating that capacity reduction is still slow. From the perspective of piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year. However, the continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - emptive supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. It is necessary to focus on where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the beginning of the fourth quarter. In the short term, the market still has a large and excessive supply, as the slaughter volume has remained high after the National Day, the frozen meat inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month [11]. - Demand Side: After the National Day, the demand side has shown some improvement. On the one hand, low prices have stimulated consumption, and the entry of frozen meat and second - round fattening has increased. On the other hand, basic consumption has increased after the temperature drop. However, the temperature drop from October to November is limited, and there is still some time until the Spring Festival. A significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [11][59]. - Trading Strategies: For the unilateral strategy, wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 0.5 - 1 months, driven by supply, weight, and consumer demand. For the arbitrage strategy, gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the spread between fat and standard pigs [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price Trend: Pig prices continued to rise slightly last week due to demand warming, reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell, and second - round fattening. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all increased. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price rebounded slightly, but the futures market had a weak expectation. The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still tends towards reverse spreads [25]. - Piglet and Sow Prices: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis of price trends is given in the text. 3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. The expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, but capacity reduction is still slow [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply from group farms may partially offset the current pressure. The short - term market has a large and excessive supply due to high slaughter volume, rising frozen meat inventory, and increasing average trading weight [43][50]. - Sow Culling and Sales: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - Theoretical Slaughter Volume: There is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply may partially offset the pressure [43]. - Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter: The low proportion of small pigs indicates limited impact of diseases, and the low proportion of large pigs means a limited number of fat pigs [46]. - Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter: The average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month, indicating a large short - term supply [50]. - Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - Second - Round Fattening and Pen Utilization: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: After the National Day, the demand side has improved, but the significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [59]. - Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. Pig prices are the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there have been overall losses this year despite the low cost [70]. 6. Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: No new content is provided in this section. - Frozen Meat Inventory: The frozen meat inventory is in a state of slow recovery and passive inventory accumulation [75].