Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current dominant logic of polysilicon futures price trends focuses on whether the photovoltaic storage platform can be established in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and whether photovoltaic policies can be effectively and timely introduced [1] - The short - term trading mainline of the current market revolves around "whether the storage platform will be established in November", and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". It is necessary to be vigilant against the disturbance of various false information to market sentiment during the policy or node vacuum period [2] - The polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand", showing a generally bearish pattern [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting polysilicon futures prices are the potential establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor suggests that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November, and as November approaches, the PS2511 contract may face significant closing pressure if long - positions lack the willingness to take over [1] - The current market shows characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of upstream polysilicon in the photovoltaic industry remains stable but there is no obvious inventory reduction. On the demand side, although the winning bid scale of components has increased week - on - week, the winning bid price has decreased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policies to be introduced by the state in the fourth quarter and whether the grid - connected electricity price of terminal photovoltaics can rise [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Positioning of the market: Observe the basis strategy; under the premise of low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [8] - Review of recent strategies: Futures, arbitrage, and option trading positions proposed on October 18, 2025, have all been closed [8] 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - Price prediction of polysilicon futures: The support level is 47,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 83.6% [9] - Risk management strategies: Different hedging strategies and entry ratios are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management [9][11] - Trend judgment and strategy suggestions: The trend is expected to be wide - range oscillation. The oscillation range is 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, the low - level range is 47,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, and the high - level range is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range; the monthly spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage on PS2601 - PS2605 [10] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "14th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industrial clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - From October 27 - 30, the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held; on October 31, China's official manufacturing PMI for October will be released [18] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Market review and technical analysis: The weighted index contract of polysilicon closed at 52,045 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,188 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%, and the open interest was 231,619 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,326 lots. The price of polysilicon has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth is narrowing. The MACD and open interest changes show that the market presents the characteristic of "long - position reduction and price decline", and the market may weaken further [16] - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility has shown an upward trend, indicating an increase in the historical fluctuation range of polysilicon futures prices. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has weakened, suggesting that the market's expectation of future price fluctuations of polysilicon is decreasing. The PCR of option open interest has weakened, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment is gradually weakening [20] - Capital flow: The net long - position scale shows signs of reduction [22] - Monthly spread structure: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the contracts have followed the reverse arbitrage logic in the past week, with little change in forward prices [24] - Basis structure: The basis of the main contract has weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices, and the futures price is in the normal range from a historical statistical perspective [28] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, with most showing little change in daily and weekly comparisons [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After hitting a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously restored with the synchronous increase in polysilicon futures and spot prices. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached a maximum of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [32] - From the perspective of the futures end, under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the current gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.66%, and the profit has declined this week mainly due to the rise in industrial silicon futures prices and the fall in polysilicon futures prices [32] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic production: The SMM - weekly output is 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84%; the Baichuan - weekly output is 31,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.46%. The Baichuan - weekly operating rate is 49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [35] - Inventory: The total weekly inventory of polysilicon is 508,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts has all increased to varying degrees [42] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly output of silicon wafers is 14.73 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%, and the weekly inventory is 18.47 GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.70% [45] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of battery cells is 7.1 GW, a week - on - week increase of 7.09%, but a month - on - month decrease of 12.45% [57] 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components is 33.5 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.90% [68] 5.5 Bidding - The winning bid capacity of photovoltaic components is 383.53 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 68.70% and a month - on - month decrease of 88.31%. The average winning bid price is 0.72 yuan/watt, with no change [70] 5.6 Installation and Application - The chart shows the seasonal data of China's monthly new photovoltaic installation capacity, but no specific data is provided in the text [73]
南华期货光伏产业周报：等待政策出台，基本面偏弱-20251025
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-25 13:29