申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/10/20-25/10/25):“十五五”规划:优化中国经济转型的实现路径
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-25 13:43

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" optimizes the path for China's economic transformation, enhancing long-term market expectations and making them easier to develop [3][5][8] - Clear recognition of China's advantages includes the "socialist system advantage," "super-large market advantage," "complete industrial system advantage," and "rich talent resource advantage" [3][5][6] - The importance of external circulation for China's economic transformation has been further confirmed, emphasizing a "high-level opening up" strategy [6][7] Group 2 - Internal circulation governance optimization is focused on increasing the resident consumption rate and optimizing resource allocation [7][8] - Future regional industrial layouts may show significant differentiation, allowing for targeted talent strategies and urbanization efforts [8] - The internal governance approach aims to enhance total factor productivity through technological advancements [8] Group 3 - Short-term market judgment remains that technology growth adjustments are nearing completion, with expectations for technology to lead the market in Q4 2025 [9][10] - The structural characteristics of the A-share market in the five-year planning year highlight AI, robotics, and semiconductors as key directions [11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" presents opportunities in emerging industries and future industries, including new energy, quantum technology, and integrated circuits [12]