蛋白粕周报：成本上升叠加去库支撑，中期偏弱-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply faces significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: US soybeans rebounded this week. Trump's negotiations with multiple countries are beneficial for US soybean sales, and the reluctance of US domestic spot holders to sell also provides support. Brazil's new - crop soybean planting is progressing normally, with an expected planting progress of about 30% this week. Brazil's premium quotes have been continuously decreasing, but the rebound of US soybeans is more significant, causing the domestic soybean arrival cost to rise slightly by 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and there is some room for Brazil's premium to decline. Since there is no significant downward trend in the global soybean supply, it is expected that the domestic soybean import cost will fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, Brazil's quotes will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first trade on the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to fall, and then, after the game between US soybeans and Brazil's premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the soybean meal market will then trade based on the cost [9]. - Domestic Double - Meal: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, the basis weakened, the futures market was strong, and the oil mills' futures crushing profit rebounded. The domestic soybean meal trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.95 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 days. As of October 22, institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases in August were 9.2 million tons, 8.64 million tons in September, 8.52 million tons in October, and 5.26 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic supply has significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9][10][11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, but does not provide specific analysis [17][18]. - Basis of the Main Contract: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract, but does not provide specific analysis [20][21]. - Spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of multiple contracts such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, but does not provide specific analysis [23][24]. - Fund Position: The report shows the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds, but does not provide specific analysis [26][29] 3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate, but does not provide specific analysis [32][33]. - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and its forecast, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America from July to September and its occurrence frequency, and the impact of La Nina on South American climate, but does not provide specific analysis [35][37][39]. - US Soybean Processing and Price: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean processing profit, Illinois Central No. 1 yellow soybean spot price, US soybean monthly processing volume, and NOPA soybean oil inventory, but does not provide specific analysis [47][50]. - US Soybean Export Progress: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year, but does not provide specific analysis [51][52]. - China's Oilseed Import: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports, but does not provide specific analysis [54][55]. - China's Oil Mill Processing: The report shows the historical trends of the soybean and rapeseed processing volumes of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [56][57]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [60][61]. - Protein Meal Inventory: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of the soybean meal inventory of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [63][64]. - Protein Meal Processing Profit: The report shows the historical trends of the processing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast, but does not provide specific analysis [65][66]. 5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand: The report shows the historical trends of the cumulative trading volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, but does not provide specific analysis [67][68]. - Breeding Profit: The report shows the historical trends of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit per feather of white - feather broilers, but does not provide specific analysis [69][70].