螺纹钢周报：政策定调与产业升级，短期需求疲弱-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee established "high - quality development" as the core task during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, which may provide new impetus for steel consumption. From a fundamental perspective, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. In the long - term, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - world demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.16%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.22%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, with a significant decrease. The supply - side pressure was gradually reduced [6]. - Demand Side: This week, the apparent rebar demand was 2.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%. The demand showed a slight week - on - week increase and was neutral [7][8]. - Inventory: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The rebar inventory has been continuously decreasing after the holiday, and the inventory contradiction has been gradually alleviated [9]. - Profit: The hot metal cost was 2,646 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 153 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9% [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Rebar Futures and Basis: The 01 - contract basis was 36 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 50 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 86 yuan/ton [20][22]. - Roll - Rebar Spread: The Beijing roll - rebar spread was 230 yuan/ton (last week: 240 yuan/ton), the Shanghai roll - rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (last week: 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou roll - rebar spread was - 10 yuan/ton (last week: - 20 yuan/ton) [25]. - North - South Spread: The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai rebar spread was - 37 yuan/ton (last week: - 56 yuan/ton) [28]. - Disc - Coil Premium: The Beijing disc - coil premium was 230 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), the Shanghai disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (last week: 150 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [30]. - Rebar - Billet Spread and Domestic - Foreign Spread: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3,100 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 456 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of Southeast Asian rebar was 468 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of US rebar was 985 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of EU rebar was 570 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of UAE - produced rebar in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton [33]. - Rebar - Coke Ratio and Rebar - Ore Ratio: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,107 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 917 yuan/ton [36]. 3. Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 153 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2,226 yuan/ton, the hot metal cost was 3,293 yuan/ton, and the average hot metal cost of 64 steel mills was 2,646 yuan/ton [39][47] 4. Supply Side - Weekly Output: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%, and the cumulative output was 91.381 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [51]. - Capacity Utilization: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52% (previous value: 53%) [54]. - Hot Metal Output: This week, the average daily hot metal output was 2.4 million tons (previous value: 2.41 million tons) [59]. - Regional Output: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.45 million tons (previous value: 0.42 million tons), in the southern region was 0.78 million tons (unchanged from the previous value), in the eastern region was 0.85 million tons, in Jiangsu was 0.39 million tons, in Shandong was 0.08 million tons, in Anhui was 0.13 million tons, in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.06 million tons [62][65][68] 5. Demand Side - Building Materials Trading Volume: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of Shanghai building materials was 18,800 tons (unchanged from last week). The trading volume of building steel in the northern region was 21,195 tons, in Beijing was 7,900 tons, in the eastern region was 44,478 tons, in Shanghai was 5,100 tons, in Hangzhou was 8,100 tons, in the southern region was 39,650 tons, in Guangzhou was 4,700 tons, in Chengdu was 3,110 tons, in Chongqing was 4,700 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,600 tons [71][73][74] - Rebar Consumption: The weekly rebar consumption was 2.26 million tons, the weekly rebar consumption in the eastern region was 0.97 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.34 million tons, in the southern region was 0.32 million tons, in the northern region was 0.2 million tons, in the central region was 0.18 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.16 million tons, and in the northwestern region was 0.16 million tons [79][81][84] - Cement Price and Net Exports/Imports: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton [86] 6. Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0%, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.29 million tons (previous value: 1.3 million tons) [89][91] - Regional Inventory: The social rebar inventory in 132 cities was 6.24 million tons, in the eastern region was 3.03 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.82 million tons, in Shanghai was 0.31 million tons, in the southern region was 0.7 million tons, in the northern region was 0.86 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.17 million tons, in Beijing was 0.39 million tons, in the central region was 0.51 million tons, in the northwestern region was 0.43 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.22 million tons, in Xi'an was 0.2 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.61 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.41 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.25 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.16 million tons [94][97][103]