尿素周报：农需好转，盘面触底回升-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weather improvement has led to increased downstream agricultural purchases and a decline in supply, slowing down the inventory accumulation of enterprises. The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains, but the spot market has underperformed, resulting in a further weakening of the basis. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Currently, the high - inventory situation of enterprises remains unchanged, suppressing the performance of near - term spot prices, and there is still a lack of strong driving forces [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side has seen an increase in device maintenance, with the enterprise operating rate at 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. The daily production is 18.49 tons, lower than the same period last year. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural demand has increased, and the enterprise's advance orders have risen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, reaching 27.71%, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Overall, the domestic demand has improved [12]. - Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The strengthening of the futures market has led to a further weakening of the basis, and the 1 - 5 spread remains at a low level. The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued, indicating that the urea valuation is low [12]. - The enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons, and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons, indicating an accelerated departure of goods from the port [12]. - In the short term, the agricultural demand has improved, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has also increased, leading to an improvement in short - term supply and demand and a strengthening of the futures market. However, the spot market has been slow to follow the price increase, resulting in a weak basis. Currently, consumption still lacks positive factors, and the supply - side enterprise profits are at a low level. Given the low valuation and weak driving forces, the downward space for spot prices is relatively limited. The market is waiting for positive factors to emerge. In the future, as the weather improves, downstream enterprises will have a stronger willingness to stockpile fertilizers, and with the upcoming off - season storage, off - season storage merchants are expected to have a strong purchasing willingness at the current low price level, and there are still some positive factors waiting to be released in the market. In terms of strategy, due to the high inventory, the price volatility has decreased, and the downward space for prices is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains due to improved weather, increased downstream agricultural purchases, and a decline in supply. The spot market has underperformed, and the basis has further weakened. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply side: Device maintenance has increased, with an operating rate of 78.03% and daily production of 18.49 tons. Demand side: Agricultural demand has increased, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded to 27.71% [12]. - Valuation: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons. Port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons [12]. - Market Logic: Short - term improvement in supply and demand has led to a strengthening of the futures market, but the spot market has been slow to follow, resulting in a weak basis [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Data: The prices of futures contracts 09, 01, and 05 have all increased compared to the previous week. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei has weakened. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine have remained stable, with some changes in profits [13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The futures market has rebounded with a decrease in open interest [28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [32] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventory has decreased [37] 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Capacity: There are plans to put new urea production facilities into operation, but the specific impact on supply needs to be further observed [46] - Urea Operating Rate: Short - term maintenance losses have increased, and the operating rate has decreased [48] - Device Maintenance: Many enterprises are undergoing routine, loss - based, or policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future [51][52] 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics [57] - Compound Fertilizer: The operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the production profit has changed slightly [61] - Nitrogen Source Comparison: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate show certain trends [63] - Melamine: The operating rate, profit, and export volume show certain changes [66][68] - Terminal Demand: The demand in industries such as plywood, real estate shows certain trends [74][78] - Export: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [84][85] 3.6. Option - Related - The open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of urea options show certain characteristics [95][97][104] 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - The urea industry chain has certain characteristics, and the fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops shows seasonal patterns [107][114]