油脂周报：短期供应偏大，暂时观望-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malay and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the time point for inventory reduction may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see for more definite production signals [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview: This week, the three major oils fluctuated weakly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market were close to zero. The supply of palm oil in the producing areas remained large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. The market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, which suppressed the market trend. In Malaysia, the October MPOB monthly report showed that the palm oil inventory accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production month - on - month and a slight increase in exports. The main reason was the significant decline in domestic apparent consumption, resulting in a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and the production - reduction season will come after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. However, the actual production in Indonesia exceeded expectations, reaching the highest monthly level in recent years. India only stocked palm oil steadily during the stocking season, and the short - term inventory accumulation of palm oil was obvious. In China, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was stable. The total inventory of domestic oils was about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 60,000 tons higher than last year, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to maintain a slightly lower - than - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil slows down the inventory reduction progress. However, due to the high margin for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total inventory of domestic oils shows a downward trend [11] - Viewpoint Summary: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for more definite production signals. For arbitrage trading, no specific strategy is provided [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2601, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 01, and the basis and seasonal basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - Palm Oil Production and Export: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which help understand the supply situation of palm oil in major producing areas [27][28] - Other Oilseed Supply: Charts show the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which help analyze the supply of other oilseeds and oils [29][31] - Palm - Producing Area Weather: Charts related to precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Inventory Situation: Charts show the total inventory of domestic three major oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil commercial inventory, soybean oil main oil mill inventory, rapeseed oil commercial inventory in East China, Malaysian palm oil inventory, and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil inventory, which help understand the inventory status of different oils [40][43][45] - Profit Situation: Charts show the near - month import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, and the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast, which help analyze the profit situation of different oils [43][45][46] 3.5 Cost Side - Palm Oil Cost: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which help understand the cost of palm oil [50][52] - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed, which help analyze the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [54] 3.6 Demand Side - Oil Trading Volume: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which helps understand the trading situation and demand of different oils [57] - Biodiesel Profit: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which help analyze the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on oil demand [59]