碳酸锂周报：预期改善锂价抬升，留意上方抛压-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream demand is strong, and the transition point between the traditional peak and off - peak seasons may be postponed. The fundamentals are improving stage - by - stage, with a shortage of tradable spot goods and a strengthening of the premium/discount transaction price. If the resumption of production at large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the trend of destocking social inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue until the end of the fourth quarter. - During the week, the total positions of all contracts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by more than 100,000 lots. The price recovery increased the hedging willingness of holders, and the net short positions of the main contracts increased significantly. Subsequently, pay attention to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and the release of supply elasticity, and monitor changes in the atmosphere of the commodity market. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Spot and Futures Market: On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. [12] - Supply: On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly domestic lithium carbonate production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure in October. [12] - Demand: According to the China Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [12] - Inventory: On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. [12] - Cost: On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. - The average discount price in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange was + 150 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate was approximately 164,000 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots during the week. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 1,720 yuan. [20][23][27] 3.3 Supply Side - On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 41.7% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 74.7% year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 16.0% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons. The cumulative increase from January to September was 9.1% year - on - year. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, resulting in limited reduction during the traditional production off - peak season. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in September was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month. The cumulative increase from January to September was 22.9% year - on - year. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October. [33][36][39][42] 3.4 Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application sectors have limited share and weak growth. The share of lithium used in sectors such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5%. - In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million units. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 23.6%. From October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. - From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million units, a 26.7% increase compared to the previous year. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 1.063 million units, an 8.1% increase compared to the previous year. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year. - From January to September, the cumulative production of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, while the production of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [46][49][52][55][58] 3.5 Inventory - On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median level. The consumption of energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. [65][68] 3.6 Cost Side - On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [76][79]