国债周报：债市延续震荡，关注年底配置力量-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current uncertainty in tariff progress is high, and the short - term decline in market risk appetite is conducive to the repair of the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. - The economic growth rate in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. Exports were resilient in September, and the growth rate of industrial added value exceeded expectations. However, the growth rates of consumption and investment continued to slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit of 500 billion yuan on the growth rate in the fourth quarter [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Economic and Policy Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In September, industrial added value remained resilient, while the consumption and investment sectors continued to recover weakly. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not great. Policy may focus more on the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US inflation data in September was slightly lower than expected, strengthening the logic of further interest rate cuts [10]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, social consumer goods retail sales were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year [10]. - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in China was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 722.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [10]. - The new Japanese Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth more than 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) [10]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total foreign - related payments and receipts reached $11.6 trillion, a record high for the same period. Cross - border capital inflows were $119.7 billion, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, both higher than the same period last year. In September, the cross - border income and expenditure of non - bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals totaled $1.37 trillion, a month - on - month increase of 7% [10]. - On the morning of October 25, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [10]. - In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, also lower than the expected 3.1% [10]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, both exceeding expectations [10]. Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 789.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [11]. Interest Rates - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.85%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 BP; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20 BP. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, with no week - on - week change [11]. Summary - The current bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock. In terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF contracts [16][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, China's GDP actual growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [45]. - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI remained unchanged, and the PPI remained unchanged [54]. - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year - on - year [57]. - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [60]. - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year [63]. - In September, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the construction area of houses decreased by 9.4% year - on - year [66]. - In September, the completion - end data decreased by 15.45% year - on - year, and the new - house sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened recently [69]. Foreign Economy - In the second quarter, the US GDP nominal annualized figure was $3,033.1 billion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [72]. - In August, the US durable goods orders were $312.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3% [75]. - In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50. In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [78]. - In September, the eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.3 [81]. 4. Liquidity - In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 scissors difference continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan [86]. - In September, the growth rate of social financing in the government bond segment slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of residents and enterprises was 5.94%, and the government bond growth rate was 20.20% [89]. - In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report presents the changes in various market interest rates including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields [95]. - The report also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US treasury bond yields, and exchange rates [99][102][104].