热卷周报：会议定调制造业需求韧性增加-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak this week, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating downward. At the macro - level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee set "high - quality development" as the core task for the 14th Five - Year Plan period, which may bring new impetus to steel consumption. The demand structure of steel will shift from traditional real - estate construction to high - end manufacturing, green infrastructure, and new - quality productivity. In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability rate of steel mills declined significantly, and the molten iron output dropped notably, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the long run, the logic of the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but in the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly [10][11] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Cost End - The blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace gross profit continued to shrink. The spot price was about 90 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7] Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of molten iron was 2.399 million tons this week, with a significant decrease, and the supply - side pressure decreased marginally. The output of hot - rolled coils was moderately high, and attention should be paid to whether the output can decrease in the future [8] Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The demand rebounded significantly, but the inventory reduction was slow. The export increased week - on - week, and the demand level was neutral [9] Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1492 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still high [10] Strategy Recommendation - The recommended strategy was to wait and see [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presented multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, coated coils, and galvanized sheets [17][21][36] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report showed charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces, and the inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated sheets [56][57][62] 4. Cost End - The report included charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, the daily average molten iron output, the cost of molten iron, and the prices of steel - making pig iron and billets [77][78][82] 5. Supply End - The report presented charts of the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples, as well as the weekly output of coated and galvanized sheets and their capacity utilization rates [90][91][104] 6. Demand End - The report showed charts of the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the production and sales of automobiles, the production of agricultural machinery, household appliances, metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products related to steel demand [107][108][111]