铁矿石周报：宏观兑现，铁水趋弱，矿价承压-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased week - on - week and were at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both grew, with FMG showing strong shipment momentum, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries slightly recovered. However, the near - end arrivals decreased week - on - week. [11][13][14] - The latest average daily hot metal output dropped below 2.4 million tons, mainly affected by weak steel prices, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production. The contradiction between high hot metal output and terminal demand was gradually realized, leading to a decrease in hot metal output. [13][14] - Port inventories continued to increase, and steel mill inventories showed a slight increase. Fundamentally, after the decline in hot metal output, the demand for iron ore weakened, port inventories continued to accumulate, and prices were under pressure. [13][14] - Macroscopically, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session was officially released, and attention should be paid to the details of the "14th Five - Year Plan". A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations has begun. If positive signals are released, it may further improve market sentiment. Overall, the reality is weak, and the tug - of - war of macro - expectations still exists, so iron ore prices will fluctuate. [13][14] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipments totaled 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 28.25 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons. Australian shipments were 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 17.291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.446 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. [13] - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.79 percentage points. [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0725 million tons. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 162 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 6.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 23.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a change of - 0.51 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.33%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.55%, a change of + 0.55 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a change of - 7.79 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 24.26 yuan/wet ton. [28] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 144.2359 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.4532 million tons. The pellet inventory was 272,170 tons, a week - on - week change of + 10,380 tons. [35] - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.13289 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.12966 million tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.92357 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.13952 million tons. [38] - The Australian ore port inventory was 5.935 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06527 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.77143 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.08743 million tons. [41] - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 9.07919 million tons, a change of + 0.09646 million tons from the previous week. [46] 3.4 Supply Side - The volume of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports in the latest period was 16.602 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.345 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.243 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.118 million tons. [51] - Rio Tinto's shipments to China in the latest period were 5.628 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.574 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipments to China were 4.196 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.817 million tons. [54] - Vale's shipments in the latest period were 6.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.355 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 4.469 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. [57] - The arrivals at 45 ports in the latest period were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports in China in September were 18.5836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6846 million tons. [60] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the latest period was 60.59%, a week - on - week change of - 0.07 percentage points. The average daily output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 47,350 tons, a week - on - week change of - 20 tons. [66] 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week change of - 0.39 percentage points. [71] - The average daily port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1265 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0307 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9646 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0089 million tons. [74] 3.6 Basis As of October 24, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 68.08 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 8.11%. [79]