PVC周报：商品情绪带动走强，基本面偏弱-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are weak, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China. The export outlook is turning weaker, and domestic demand is poor, making it difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply. - In the short - term, the valuation has declined to a low level, but it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. The slowdown in inventory accumulation and the strong sentiment in the black market are supporting prices. - In the medium - term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be poor after the new device is put into production, and real estate demand continues to decline. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to be low, and the profit of ethylene - based production is running at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.6%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 74.4%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the ethylene method is 81.6%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The supply - side load decreased slightly last week due to maintenance at some companies. It is expected to rebound next week, and the overall load in October is expected to remain high, with multiple new devices expected to start trial production. - Demand: In terms of exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, which is expected to lead to a decline in exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week, with the overall downstream load rising by 1.3% to 49.9%. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 63.5 tons, up 8 tons week - on - week. - Inventory: Last week, the in - plant inventory was 33.4 tons, down 2.7 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 103.5 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week; the overall inventory was 136.9 tons, down 2.5 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is gradually shifting from upstream to mid - stream. [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents various charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, prices, trading volume, and open interest of active contracts and total contracts from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis or summary is provided in the text. [15][16][18][26][28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The in - plant inventory and social inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of different types of inventories. [33][40] - Profit: The profit data of different production methods of PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, including the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration in Shandong. [41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have a slight rebound. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - Other cost - related factors such as the price of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 are also presented through charts. [47][48][50][54] 3.5. Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The historical trend of PVC capacity, the planned production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials required for production in different quarters are presented through charts and tables. - The operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of production capacity utilization. [57][59][61][63][64][65][70] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The operating rates of PVC film, profiles, and pipes from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented through charts, reflecting the demand situation from different aspects. [73][77][82][85][87][89]