锡周报：供给延续偏紧，关注缅甸复产进展-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, tin prices rebounded slightly from a low level. Supply remains tight, with the slow resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar and insufficient raw materials for smelting enterprises. Although the mining licenses in the Wa State have been approved, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level due to the rainy season and slow actual resumption progress, failing to effectively make up for the supply gap. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume decreased significantly compared to the previous month. On the demand side, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In September, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The social inventory of major tin ingots decreased this week. Overall, the tight supply situation supports tin prices, and it is expected that tin prices will remain stable or rebound slightly [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost End: Although the mining licenses in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow, and significant recovery of tin ore supply is expected in the fourth quarter. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. The import volume from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo has decreased, but the overall volume is at a normal level, only affected by shipping factors. The import volume from Myanmar is increasing, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement. The import volume from other regions and countries remains at the previous level [12]. - Supply End: The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow and difficult to increase production before November. The raw material shortage of smelting enterprises in Yunnan still exists, and the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan remains low. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. The raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance in September, with the capacity utilization rate likely to remain low [12]. - Demand End: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in September. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. This week, the total social inventory of major tin ingots was 7,743 tons, a decrease of 182 tons from last week [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) [19][20]. 3.3. Cost End Tin ore supply is tight in the short term, and processing fees remain at a low level [27]. 3.4. Supply End The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow, and the raw material shortage of smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi persists, resulting in a low level of refined tin output and a low capacity utilization rate of domestic smelters [12]. 3.5. Demand End - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline, mainly because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [56]. - The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in September, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices [12]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance This week, the total social inventory of major tin ingots was 7,743 tons, a decrease of 182 tons from last week [12].