甲醇周报：现实依旧偏弱，盘面震荡下行-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is still weak in reality, with the futures market oscillating downward. The methanol sector has limited ability to follow the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector due to its weak fundamentals. The port inventory continues to rise, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened, indicating significant real - world pressure. Although there are potential positive factors, the market is expected to have limited downward momentum, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The energy and chemical sector rebounded strongly, but methanol, affected by its weak fundamentals, had limited ability to follow the upward trend. The port inventory continued to rise, the basis and monthly spread weakened, and the market was under significant real - world pressure [11] - Fundamentals: Domestic methanol operating rate was 85.65%, a 2% week - on - week decrease, but it is expected to rise in the future. Coal prices continued to strengthen, increasing methanol production costs. The port arrival volume was 35.2 tons, a 6.82 - ton week - on - week increase, and it is expected to continue rising. The port olefin operating rate was 87.25%, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease, with some plants reducing their loads. The traditional demand for acetic acid and MTBE increased, while others declined, resulting in an overall weakening of demand [11] - Valuation: As the impact of imports weakened, the basis and monthly spread declined again and were at low levels year - on - year. Coal prices continued to strengthen, causing the coal - to - methanol profit to decline rapidly from its high level. The downstream profit improved slightly, but the absolute level remained low, and the high valuation of methanol was being corrected downward [11] - Inventory: The port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton week - on - week increase, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down due to lower - than - expected unloading. The enterprise inventory was 36.04 tons, a 0.05 - ton week - on - week increase and at a low level year - on - year [11] - Market Logic: The future import supply pressure remains high. With high port inventories, the spot market is weak, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened again. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Data: The prices of methanol contracts and spot markets in different regions showed various changes. For example, the 09 - contract price increased by 33 yuan/ton, while the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The downstream product prices and profits also changed, such as the PP - 3*MA profit increasing by 185 yuan/ton [12] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The market showed a pattern of increasing open interest and falling prices [22] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Coal prices continued to strengthen, which had an impact on methanol production costs [32] - Production Profit: The coal - to - methanol profit declined from its high level [41] - Port Inventory: The port inventory was at a historically high level [44] - Regional Inventory: The factory inventory was at a low level year - on - year [46] 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: New methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation, with a total of 745 tons of new capacity from multiple enterprises in the northwest region planned to be put into operation at different times in 2025 [55] - Upstream Production and Operating Rate: The domestic methanol operating rate decreased from its high level, and the overseas methanol operating rate also showed certain trends [57] - Import Volume: The import volume and its sources (such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia) showed different trends, and the import volume is expected to continue to rise [62] - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume in different regions (such as East China and South China) showed certain changes [71] - Price Spreads: International and regional price spreads, as well as domestic freight rates, showed different trends [73][76][85] 3.5 Demand Side - Demand Projection: The consumption and end - of - period inventory showed certain trends [90] - Methanol - to - Olefins: The olefin operating rate, MTO operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and related production profits and price spreads showed different trends [92] - PP Production Profits: The production profits of different PP production processes (such as oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based) showed different trends [101] - MTO - Related Price Spreads: The price spreads between different products (such as PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, etc.) showed different trends [104] - Downstream Operating Rates and Profits: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether showed different trends [114][116] - Downstream Inventory: The downstream inventory showed certain trends [119] - Related Product Ratios: The ratios between methanol and other related products (such as urea, INE crude oil, etc.) showed different trends [122] 3.6 Options - Related - Methanol Options: The option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility showed certain trends [126] 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [132][134]