贵金属周报：美国通胀数据低于预期，价格将得到支撑-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in precious metal prices is more of a "correction in an uptrend" rather than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. Maintain a long - term bullish view and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting next Thursday. Suggest allocating long positions on dips, with the reference range for the SHFE gold main contract at 923 - 982 yuan/gram and for the SHFE silver main contract at 11082 - 12023 yuan/kilogram [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Market Review: Gold and silver prices declined this week. As of Friday's daytime close, SHFE gold fell 6.17% to 938.10 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 7.49% to 11332.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 3.30% to 4126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 4.38% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.94 [11] - Reasons for the Correction: The main reasons were the expected easing of overseas risk events and over - bought corrections in trading, not a reversal in the trading logic. News of a potential end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the risk events have not been completely reversed [11] - US Economic Data: The US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. There may be a lack of inflation data in the future, and the market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings [11] 3.2. Market Review - Price Movements: Gold and silver prices declined this week. SHFE gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all recorded drops [30] - Open Interest: This week, the total open interest of SHFE gold decreased by 1.28% to 355,900 lots, while the total open interest of COMEX gold as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. The total open interest of SHFE silver decreased slightly by 1.97% to 739,900 lots, and the total open interest of COMEX silver as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [32][34] - Managed Fund Net Positions: As of the September 23 report period, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds increased. The net position of COMEX gold managed funds rose by 1578 lots to 160,500 lots, and that of COMEX silver managed funds rose by 1293 lots to 37,000 lots [36] - ETF Holdings: As of October 24, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2332.14 tons, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 28165.84 tons [39] 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yields: Analyzed the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [49] - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: Presented the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52] - Fed's Balance Sheet: The Fed's total assets decreased by 6921 million US dollars this week. There were changes in various items on both the asset and liability sides [54] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - US CPI & PCE: The US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected and previous values. The CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the core CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1% [61] - US Employment: Due to the US government shutdown, the latest weekly unemployment data was missing [64] - US PMI & PPI: The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, higher than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, lower than the expected 51.7 and the previous value of 52 [67] - US New Housing Data: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized number of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized number of new housing starts was 1.307 million [70] 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: Analyzed the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [73] - Silver Basis: Analyzed the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [76] - Domestic - Foreign Spreads: Analyzed the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [79] 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: Presented the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [86][89] - Gold Inventories: Presented the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [91]