Report Title - Crude Oil Stops Falling and Rebounds, Styrene Temporarily Stabilizes - Styrene Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. The BZN spread of pure benzene has decreased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has increased, with the overall valuation being moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season, leading to a brief rebound in the downstream 3S开工率. Port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. In the short term, geopolitical factors will push up the crude oil price center, and the seasonal peak season will interfere with the decline of styrene prices. When the seasonal off - season arrives at the end of the fourth quarter, the futures price may continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information - Policy: There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound [11]. - Valuation: The weekly decline of styrene (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakens, the BZN spread decreases, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants increases [11]. - Cost: Last week, the spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 3.08%, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene decreased by - 0.16%, the pure benzene basis decreased by 166 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene operating rate fluctuated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 71.88%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.35%, a year - on - year increase of 2.10%, and a decrease of - 8.20% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the supply - demand pattern may change in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side may be slightly relieved. In September, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.3507 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in September was 246,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. Last week, the port inventory of pure benzene and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream 3S was 42.92%, a month - on - month increase of 11.38%; the operating rate of PS was 53.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.49%; the operating rate of EPS was 62.52%, a month - on - month increase of 53.47% and a year - on - year increase of 4.80%; the operating rate of ABS was 73.10%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [12]. - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB was 193,200 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of - 0.11% and a year - on - year stocking of 17.59%; the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a month - on - month stocking of 3.05% and a year - on - year stocking of 483.57%. Port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint - Forecast for this week: The reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5800 - 6100); the reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2511) is (6800 - 7100). It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to styrene, including spot price, futures active contract price, basis, open interest, trading volume, registered warehouse receipts, and spreads between different contracts from 2021 - 2025 [16][19][21] 3. Profit and Inventory - Inventory - The report shows charts of the inventory of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and styrene factories from 2021 - 2025 [34][35][37] - Profit - The POSM profit of styrene has recovered from the historical low in the same period. The production process of styrene mainly includes ethylbenzene dehydrogenation (85%), PO/SM co - production (12%), and C8 extraction (3%). The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [41][43][46] 4. Cost Side - Supply - Side Profit - The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly [53] - Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene - In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 2.28 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 3.11 million tons [57][58] - Price Difference - The US - South Korea price difference of pure benzene has fluctuated upwards [64] - Downstream Factory Inventory - The factory inventory of caprolactam has been fluctuating at a high level [91] 5. Supply Side - Production Plan - In 2025, the supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.42 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 4.198 million tons [105][107] - Production and Import - Export - The styrene production has declined from the high level in the same period. The report also shows charts of styrene's daily production, export volume, import volume, and weekly operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [113][117][115] 6. Demand Side - Capacity Forecast - The report presents the capacity, production, and growth rate charts of PS, EPS, and ABS from 2021 - 2025 [125] - Operating Rate and Profit - The operating rate of EPS has seasonally rebounded, the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level, and the report also shows the production profit and inventory charts of PS, EPS, and ABS [128][136][138] - Downstream Demand Structure - PS accounts for 35% of the demand for styrene, mainly used in food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings; EPS accounts for 21%, mainly used in building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging; ABS accounts for 15%, mainly used in household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys [147] - Downstream Product Sales - The report shows the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate charts of household refrigerators and washing machines from 2021 - 2025 [148][152][157]
苯乙烯周报：原油止跌反弹，苯乙烯暂时企稳-20251025
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-25 14:14