Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the text. Core View of the Report The lead ore's visible inventory is decreasing, and the import TC of lead concentrate is declining again. The smelting operation rate at the primary end has increased, and the inventory at primary plants has decreased. The inventory of waste lead-acid batteries has slightly increased, the smelting profit of recycled lead has improved significantly, and the operation rate of recycled lead has risen above 40%. On the demand side, the operation rate of batteries has slightly improved, and the price of lead-acid batteries has increased after a long period of stability. The social and factory inventories of lead ingots continue to decline, with the latest social inventory below 30,000 tons. The monthly spread of SHFE lead has shown an explosive increase after a long period of stability, and there are certain structural risks in the domestic market. Considering the recent positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the prices of base metals have been strong, and several metals such as silver, zinc, and lead have shown structural risks. The sector atmosphere is favorable for bulls, and it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 - Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% at 17,592 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose 10.5 to 2,017.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 154,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined-scrap spread was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36% [11]. 02 - Primary Supply - Imports: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -6.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.8%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,070,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 24.4%. The net import of silver concentrate in September was 160,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -8.6% and a month - on - month change of -14.1%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,358,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.8% [15]. - Production: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of -3.0%. From January to September, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -7.5% and a month - on - month change of -0.7%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,185,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6% [17]. - Total Supply: In September 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 306,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.4% and a month - on - month change of -1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2,434,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting Operation Rate and Output: The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [26]. 03 - Recycled Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Production: At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.0%. From January to September, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - Imports and Total Supply: In September 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -12,400 tons, a year - on - year change of -70.1% and a month - on - month change of 9.5%. From January to September, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -80,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -50.1%. In September, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 657,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.8% and a month - on - month change of 0.1%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,829,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 04 - Demand Analysis - Battery Operation Rate and Apparent Demand: On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36%. In September 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 718,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.4% and a month - on - month change of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,836,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [40]. - Battery Exports: In September 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.6474 million units, and the net export weight was 97,000 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 60,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.1% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to September, the total net export of lead in batteries was 554,700 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [43]. - Inventory Days: In September 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased from 20.5 to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries at dealers decreased from 42 to 39.7 days [45]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high current vehicle ownership and the high replacement demand of existing vehicles support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 05 - Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance: In September 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -61,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -6,800 tons [63]. - Overseas Supply - Demand Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -8,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -53,900 tons [66]. 06 - Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton [71]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton [74]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [77]. - Position Analysis: The top 20 net position of SHFE lead turned net long, the net long position of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].
铅周报：铅锭现货偏紧，月差横移突破-20251025
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-25 14:14