镍周报：短期库存压力显著，镍价底部震荡-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price, which is oscillating at the bottom. If the inventory continues to rise, it's difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Short - term advice is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: In the nickel ore market, the overall trading atmosphere is fair this week. In the Philippines, due to the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas, the mine price is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term. In Indonesia, the new regulation on the approval cycle has accelerated the stockpiling of smelters, and the overall ore price is expected to remain stable or rebound slightly; the wet - process ore market is relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - Ferronickel: This week, the game between supply and demand sides of ferronickel intensifies, and the price is weak. The profit of iron plants is squeezed, and they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand from stainless - steel enterprises is weak, and they are pressing down on the price of ferronickel. With cost support, the decline space of ferronickel is limited, and attention should be paid to the change in the demand side of stainless steel [11]. - Intermediate products: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the bargaining power of sellers has increased. The downstream industry has entered the peak demand season, and the demand for raw material procurement has been released. The downstream enterprises' acceptance of the high - price MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - Refined nickel: This week, the nickel price oscillated. Macroeconomic factors such as the US inflation data and Sino - US trade relations have affected market sentiment. The output of refined nickel remains high, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot market: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The spot parity and the three - month parity increased. The import loss decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased. The inventory of nickel plates increased, and that of nickel beans decreased [15]. - Futures market: The closing prices of LME and SHFE nickel decreased. The LME nickel open interest decreased, and the SHFE nickel open interest increased [15]. - Nickel spot premium: The domestic refined - nickel spot premium oscillated. As of October 25, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [23]. - Secondary nickel prices: The ferronickel price was weak, and the average price of domestic high - nickel pig iron decreased by 7 yuan/nickel point compared with last week. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained stable [27]. 3.3. Cost End - Nickel ore: The price of nickel ore remained stable with a slight increase. On October 24, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - earth nickel ore increased by 0.1 US dollars/wet ton compared with last week, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore remained unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore increased by 1 US dollar/wet ton [36]. - Ferronickel: The production profit of ferronickel is under pressure, and the profit situation varies in different regions [38][40]. - Intermediate products: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the price and the transaction coefficient are relatively strong [46]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In September 2025, the national refined - nickel output remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [51]. - Demand: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel market and downstream manufacturing and real - estate industries [53][55]. - Import and export: No specific data on the current situation of import and export are mentioned, but relevant historical data trends are presented [57]. - Inventory: The global visible inventory of nickel increased by 0.17% to 298,550 tons, and both China and LME saw inventory accumulation [61]. - Cost: The production cost and profit rate vary by different raw materials and processes [63]. 3.5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Supply: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are presented through historical data trends [67]. - Demand: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - Cost and price: The production cost and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel vary by different raw materials [72]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and demand of nickel from 2023 to 2025 are forecasted. The total supply is expected to exceed the total demand, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in 2025 [78].