聚酯周报：原油带动聚酯原料上涨，整体估值利润下降-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN was slightly compressed. Due to weak fundamentals and limited by PTA processing fees, the overall valuation was difficult to expand. The price rose passively following crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, with many PTA downstream overhauls and a low overall load center. The expectation of new PTA device production suppresses PTA processing fees, making it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is difficult to expand actively due to PTA processing fees. The valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There is a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees continued to be compressed in a weak pattern. Even though terminal data improved significantly, it was essentially due to the difficult - to - relieve pressure expectation on the supply side. Therefore, this week's rebound was mainly a passive rebound following costs. In the future, the short - term supply - side overhaul volume will decrease, turning to slight inventory accumulation. Due to the weak long - term pattern expectation, processing fees are difficult to expand. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester chemical fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high. However, due to inventory pressure and the off - season of downstream bottle chips, the bottle chip load is difficult to increase, and the probability of further boosting the polyester load is small. The improved terminal data is difficult to be reflected in the already high polyester chemical fiber load. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously suppressed by continuous PTA overhauls under low processing fees. There is even a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume has rebounded, with ports turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression in the weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX - Price performance: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 230 yuan in a single week, reporting 6522 yuan. The spot - end CFR China rose 32 dollars, reporting 815 dollars. The spot - converted basis rose 30 yuan, reaching 141 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 3 spread rose 2 yuan, reaching - 8 yuan as of October 24 [11]. - Supply side: Last week, the Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes in China. Overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG was under overhaul, and the Saudi overhaul was postponed. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 256,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of October, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, the subsequent domestic overhaul volume is still small, and the load remains high [11]. - Demand side: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there was a slight inventory increase in September. Due to the slight decrease in PTA overhaul volume in October, a slight inventory reduction is expected [11]. - Valuation cost side: As of October 23, last week's PXN was 239 dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1 dollar; the naphtha spread decreased by 9 dollars, reaching 90 dollars as of October 23, and crude oil rebounded significantly. In terms of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, last week, the US gasoline spread remained stable, the Asian gasoline spread was relatively strong, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [11]. - PTA - Price performance: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 116 yuan in a single week, reporting 4518 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 110 yuan, reporting 4450 yuan. The spot basis rose 2 yuan, reaching - 83 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan, reaching - 66 yuan as of October 24 [12]. - Supply side: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [12]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of October 17, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons, with a slight inventory increase. The downstream load remains high, but the PTA overhaul volume in October has decreased slightly, and slight inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - Profit side: Last week, the spot processing fee decreased by 60 yuan, reaching 79 yuan/ton as of October 24; the disk processing fee decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 240 yuan/ton as of October 24 [12]. - MEG - Price performance: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 74 yuan in a single week, reporting 4077 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 72 yuan, reporting 4187 yuan. The basis rose 19 yuan, reaching 93 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread rose 6 yuan, reaching - 76 yuan as of October 24 [13]. - Supply side: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 82.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the ethylene - based load was 68.2%, a 6.3% decrease month - on - month. In terms of synthetic gas - based devices, there were few device changes; in terms of petrochemicals, Fulein and Shenghong were under overhaul, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Sinopec Zhongke Refining had a short - term shutdown; overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. Overall, there are few subsequent overhaul devices, the load will remain high, and there is pressure for further increase. In terms of arrivals, last week's arrival forecast was 53,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons. In September, imports were 620,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of October 20, the port inventory was 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 13.4 days, a 0.2 - day increase month - on - month. In the short term, the arrival volume was moderately low last week, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly. With a high domestic load and an increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation cycle [13]. - Valuation cost side: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 123 yuan to - 611 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 80 yuan to - 646 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 475 yuan to 253 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 780 dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 660 yuan/ton. The cost of coal rebounded, and ethylene prices fell. Currently, the overall valuation is relatively high [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly [32]. - PTA: The basis was at a low level, and the monthly spread weakened. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [44][47]. - MEG: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [56][63]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - Capacity and load: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in Shandong is expected to add 3 million tons of new PX capacity in the second half of the year. Last week, the Chinese PX load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month [77][11]. - Imports: In September, the PX import volume remained stable [83]. - Inventory: In August, the inventory remained stable [91]. - Cost - profit: PXN contracted, the short - process spread increased, and the naphtha spread decreased [95]. - Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil: Asian gasoline performed strongly, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [102][110][112]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - Capacity and load: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new PTA capacities. Last week, the PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [134][12]. - Exports: Relevant data on PTA exports are provided, including exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [139]. - Inventory: The inventory remains at a low level [140]. - Profit: The spot and disk processing fees decreased last week [12]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity and load: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new MEG capacities. Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. The synthetic gas - based device load was at a historical high [145][13][148]. - Imports: Data on MEG imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are provided [150]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream and downstream factories increased [152]. - Cost: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene was weak [162]. - Profit: The naphtha - based profit remained continuously high, and the coal - based profit was compressed [165]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New device production: There are new polyester filament and bottle chip devices going into production [180]. - Basis: The staple fiber basis strengthened, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [184]. - Supply: The operating rate remained at a high level [187]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyester products such as filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips is presented [193][195]. - Profit: The filament profit decreased [201]. - Terminal - Textile enterprise orders and inventory: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory preparation increased [207]. - Textile and clothing and soft drinks: Domestic textile and clothing consumption growth recovered, and exports were weak [212]. - US clothing inventory: The wholesale inventory is below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory is increasing marginally [214].