不锈钢周报：盘面减仓上行，现货延续弱势-20251025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless - steel market rebounded last week, but its actual impact on the spot market was limited. Although the crude steel production continued to grow, the actual output was lower than the initial production plan due to some enterprises' production reduction and control strategies. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the terminal demand release is lower than expected, and the market activity remains low. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with low acceptance of high - priced resources, and most transactions are concentrated on low - priced resources. In terms of raw materials, the prices of high - nickel iron, high - carbon ferrochrome, and molybdenum iron are generally under pressure, weakening the cost support for stainless steel to varying degrees. Under the dual pressure of weakened cost support and a loose supply - demand structure, the stainless - steel market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is about - 60 yuan (- 64) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is about 40 yuan (- 74) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 218,446 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 22.13% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was 0 (+ 80), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 10 (+ 135) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [30]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel production in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons in September, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [33]. - In September, the net export volume of stainless steel was 298,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42%. The cumulative net export from January to September was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89% [40]. - In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7% [43]. - In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 13.45% and a year - on - year increase of 1.50%; the automobile sales volume in September was 3.2264 million units, a month - on - month increase of 12.94% and a year - on - year increase of 14.86% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons [50]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 34.43%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9791 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the price of chrome ore was 56 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome production in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 661 yuan/ton, and the profit rate is - 4.82% [66].